Collapse & Recovery: How COVID-19 Eroded Human Capital and What to Do About It

The pandemic dealt the biggest setback to global poverty-reduction efforts in decades - 70 million more people pushed back into extreme poverty. The World Bank’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity series provides the latest estimates and trends in global poverty and shared prosperity and identifies how governments can optimize fiscal policy to help correct course. This report can be found here:  www.worldbank.org...

But the pandemic has also caused a hidden but massive collapse in the human capital of young people at critical moments in the life cycle. Human capital is a key driver of poverty reduction and inclusive growth. It is also imperative to building resilience for the overlapping crises of climate change, fragility, as well as the looming recession. The Collapse and Recovery report documents the collapse of human capital for individuals under the age of 25 and offers recommendations for policy responses to remedy these losses. In particular, Chapter 4 documents the impacts of COVID on youth employment (including for countries in Africa) and presents some policy recommendations to remedy losses. If countries fail to act, the losses in human capital documented in this report will become permanent and last for multiple generations. Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN

You can also learn more about the World Bank’s efforts to support youth in Africa here:  blogs.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

The pandemic dealt the biggest setback to global poverty-reduction efforts in decades - 70 million more people pushed back into extreme poverty. The World Bank’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity series provides the latest estimates and trends in global poverty and shared prosperity and identifies how governments can optimize fiscal policy to help correct course. This report can be found here:  www.worldbank.org/...

But the pandemic has also caused a hidden but massive collapse in the human capital of young people at critical moments in the life cycle. Human capital is a key driver of poverty reduction and inclusive growth. It is also imperative to building resilience for the overlapping crises of climate change, fragility, as well as the looming recession. The Collapse and Recovery report documents the collapse of human capital for individuals under the age of 25 and offers recommendations for policy responses to remedy these losses. In particular, Chapter 4 documents the impacts of COVID on youth employment (including for countries in Africa) and presents some policy recommendations to remedy losses. If countries fail to act, the losses in human capital documented in this report will become permanent and last for multiple generations. Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN

You can also learn more about the World Bank’s efforts to support youth in Africa here:  blogs.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

The World Bank's World Development Report 2023, to be released in spring 2023, focuses on migrants, refugees, and societies. For more information, visit  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

Chapter 4 of the report Collapse and Recovery documents the impacts of COVID on youth employment and presents some policy recommendations to recover these losses. In particular, it shows that youth have suffered from sharp declines in their job prospects, and the extent to which employment has recovered varies a great deal across countries. Appropriate policy responses will vary by country—in particular, by the extent to which there has been a recovery of both adult and youth employment. For countries where neither adult nor youth employment has recovered, policies should primarily be geared toward demand-side interventions that spur firms to start hiring again. For countries where adult employment has recovered but youth employment has not, support for supply-side policies such as adapted training, job intermediation, entrepreneurship programs, and new workforce-oriented initiatives for youth are all important. Countries where both adult and youth employment have recovered should monitor developments in the labor market to ensure that the recovery has been equal across groups. In all countries, policies should recognize that youth are a diverse group and that skills are the best insurance against a crisis. Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

Climate change, poverty, and inequality are the defining issues of our age. The World Bank Group is the biggest multilateral funder of climate investments in developing countries. And we intend to go further in helping countries reduce poverty and rise to the challenges of climate change. You can find more about the programs the World Bank supports to build climate resilience here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

Climate change, poverty, and inequality are the defining issues of our age. The World Bank Group is the biggest multilateral funder of climate investments in developing countries. And we intend to go further in helping countries reduce poverty and rise to the challenges of climate change. You can find more about the programs the World Bank supports to build climate resilience here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

As a development institution, the World Bank Group focuses on helping countries recover from COVID-19 and build more resilient, inclusive economies. Our pandemic response financing reached $72.8 billion between April 2020 and June 2022, including $37.6 billion and $35.1 billion in IBRD and IDA commitments, respectively. During the same period, its financing in human development sectors reached $47.5 billion, supporting 300 projects in low- and middle-income countries. You can find more information about what the World Bank is doing in Pakistan here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the forefront the risk of major disease outbreaks and highlighted countries’ lack of preparedness to fight them. Pandemic preparedness and disease surveillance anchored in strong health systems that reach all people—especially the most vulnerable—are crucial to ensure better protection from major disease outbreaks. Ensuring and investing in preparedness before a crisis strikes saves lives and ultimately saves money. You can find more details on the World Bank Group’s agenda to support the prevention, preparedness and response to disease outbreaks and pandemics at the country, regional, and global levels as part of a broader approach to strengthen health systems here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

Chapter 5 of the report Collapse and Recovery documents government responses to the pandemic, including an unprecedented expansion of social protection systems and programs. These included income support programs that mitigated drops in food consumption for households whose member(s) lost a job or significant earnings, and cash transfers that attempted to keep people out of poverty. Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

The pandemic dealt the biggest setback to global poverty-reduction efforts in decades--70 million more people pushed back into extreme poverty. But it also caused a hidden but massive collapse in the human capital of young people at critical moments in the life cycle. Investments in human capital critical to countries’ growth, stability, and prosperity. Human capital is a key driver of poverty reduction and inclusive growth. It is also imperative to building resilience for the overlapping crises of climate change, fragility, as well as the looming recession.

The report Collapse and Recovery presents evidence of the impacts of the pandemic using new individual- and household-level data from low- and middle-income countries and reviews the existing literature. It extracts lessons from actions and policies implemented around the world in response to the pandemic, as well as past evidence on program effectiveness. Moreover, the report recommends concrete policies for the short and medium term that will help recover human capital losses from the pandemic and prepare for future shocks. Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

The World Bank is committed to supporting countries in their efforts to recover human capital losses while dealing with the urgency overlapping crises. Investing in human capital and in resilient human development systems is key to building resilience and promoting growth. The World Bank’s pandemic response financing reached $72.8 billion between April 2020 and June 2022, including $37.6 billion and $35.1 billion in IBRD and IDA commitments, respectively. During the same period, its financing in human development sectors reached $47.5 billion, supporting 300 projects in low- and middle-income countries. You can learn more about the World Bank’s response to COVID-19 here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

Chapter 3 of the report Collapse and Recovery highlights a focus on foundational learning as a non-negotiable priority to address learning losses. Children learn more and are more likely to stay in school if they are first taught in a language that they speak and understand. The World Bank report Loud and Clear: Effective Language of Instruction Policies for Learning, notes that effective language of instruction (LoI) policies are central to reducing Learning Poverty and improving other learning outcomes, equity, and inclusion. The report on LoI can be found here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

Chapter 3 of the Collapse and Recovery report estimates the impacts of the pandemic on the human capital of school age children, documenting that around one billion children lost at least one year of face-to-face education in low- and middle-income countries and, despite enormous efforts put into distance education, sadly, on average, children learned nothing during prolonged school closures.
The World Bank has two reports that focus on remote learning. The first one follows a qualitative research approach to document the opinions of education experts regarding the effectiveness of remote and remedial learning programs implemented across 17 countries. The second one uses mixed-methods to examine how countries adopted different remote learning strategies, analyzing the take up, but also documenting -when available- the effectiveness of remote learning during COVID-19. This publication not only documents lessons being learned but also provides countries with principles to reimagine learning tomorrow. Both reports can be found here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

The report Collapse and Recovery report estimates the impacts of the pandemic on the human capital of young children, school-age children, and youth, and offers concrete policy recommendations to recover losses across these stages of the life cycle. Human capital is a key driver of poverty reduction and inclusive growth. It is also imperative to building resilience for the overlapping crises of climate change, fragility, as well as the looming recession. If countries fail to act, the losses in human capital documented in this report will become permanent and last for multiple generations. Where possible, the report translates these losses into reduced lifetime earnings and stymied economic growth.
So, which policies should countries put at the top of their human capital recovery list? Policy responses will vary by country, but Chapter 6 provides and suggests an approach to prioritization. First, an emphasis on transition periods in the life cycle can help stem the accumulation of losses (e.g. from early childhood to school age or from school to work) since transitions are defining moments in life. Second, the report also provides evidence on the full cost (i.e. fiscal costs, costs stemming from implementation complexity and political commitment required) of each proposed policy. Overall, we hope that the report helps policymakers understand the huge impact of the pandemic on human capital and identify policies to recover these losses that are relevant to their context. Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report forecasts growth for countries and regions and identifies critical steps needed to boost median incomes and shared prosperity. The report can be found here:  www.worldbank.org/...
But the pandemic has also caused a hidden but massive collapse in the human capital of young people at critical moments in the life cycle. Human capital is a key driver of poverty reduction and inclusive growth. It is also imperative to building resilience for the overlapping crises of climate change, fragility, as well as the looming recession. The Collapse and Recovery report documents the collapse of human capital for individuals under the age of 25 and offers recommendations for policy responses to remedy these losses. If countries fail to act, the losses in human capital documented in this report will become permanent and last for multiple generations. Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

How to recover losses across multiple dimensions of human capital is the question at the heart of the Collapse and Recovery report. The report estimates the impacts of the pandemic on multiple dimensions of human capital of young children, school-age children, and youth and offers concrete policy recommendations to recover losses across these stages of the life cycle (see Chapters 2, 3, and 4 for policy recommendations for different age groups). The report also highlights the multidimensional, cumulative, and sequential nature of human capital (see Chapter 5).
So, which policies from these menus of recommendations should countries put at the top of their human capital recovery list? Chapter 6 discusses this. First, an emphasis on transition periods in the life cycle can help stem the accumulation of losses (e.g. from early childhood to school age or from school to work) since transitions are defining moments in life. Second, the report also provides evidence on the full cost (i.e. fiscal costs, costs stemming from implementation complexity and political commitment required) of each proposed policy. Overall, we hope that the report helps policymakers understand the huge impact of the pandemic on human capital and provide some policy options that they can implement to recover these losses.
Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

The Collapse and Recovery report estimates the impacts of the pandemic on the human capital of young children, school-age children, and youth, and highlights differential impacts for vulnerable or marginalized groups where data are available. Chapter 5 of the report highlights government responses like the increase/expansion of social protection programs that were instrumental in protecting vulnerable groups during the pandemic. It also notes the features of adaptive and resilient systems that can protect the human capital of vulnerable groups in the face of crisis. Please see the report for more:  wrld.bg/xJV850MQ7FN
In addition, the World Bank’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity series provides the latest estimates and trends in global poverty and shared prosperity and identifies how governments can optimize fiscal policy to help correct course. This report can be found here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza
 

As a development institution, the World Bank Group is focusing on helping countries recover from COVID-19 and other overlapping crises to build more resilient, inclusive economies. Our pandemic response financing reached $72.8 billion between April 2020 and June 2022, including $37.6 billion and $35.1 billion in IBRD and IDA commitments, respectively. During the same period, its financing in human development sectors reached $47.5 billion, supporting 300 projects in low- and middle-income countries. You can learn more about the World Bank’s response to COVID-19 here:  www.worldbank.org/...

Expert: Ritika D'Souza