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This event took place on February 15, 2022

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00:01 [Female voice] COVID-19 forced the world to deal with loss,
00:05 lost lives, but also lost jobs and lost incomes, especially in developing countries.
00:16 Lost jobs meant some businesses failed, bank balance sheets worsened, and credit tightened,
00:23 making new businesses and jobs harder to create.
00:27 To limit the losses, governments stepped in.
00:32 Their swift action, helped households and businesses get by and kept financial institutions running.
00:41 But it costs a lot of money and many governments borrowed heavily to fund it.
00:46 [Female voice] Now countries face new
00:50 long-term challenges like unsustainable levels of government debt, a lack of clarity about
00:56 the real financial health of households, businesses, banks, and even governments.
01:05 The 2022 World Development Report examines the interconnected economic and financial risks
01:11 that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic.
01:15 And the actions governments can take now to enable an equitable recovery.
01:22 Ignoring these risks could threaten any recovery, impacting the most vulnerable.
01:31 [READ THE FULL REPORT WORLDBANK.ORG/WDR2022 #WDR2022]
01:39 [Francine Lacqua] Welcome to everyone
01:42 in our virtual audience around the world. We're so glad you could join
01:45 us for this virtual event on how finance can support equitable recovery around the world.
01:49 I'm Francine Lacqua. Now earlier today,
01:51 the World Bank released its latest World Development Report Finance for an Equitable Recovery.
01:55 The world is still dealing with COVID-19. This pandemic really has triggered
02:00 the largest economic crisis in more than a century. Increased global poverty for the
02:04 first time in a generation and increased inequality across and within countries.
02:08 Now, governments stepped up
02:10 with generous economic support for households and business.
02:12 And while these helped mitigate the worst impacts of the crisis, they now need to be rolled back.
02:17 So today's event will discuss how this can be done without setting off a cascading financial crisis.
02:21 We are live streaming today in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic.
02:25 And you can follow the event on social media as well
02:27 using the hashtag #WDR2022. You can also post comments and questions at live.worldbank.org,
02:35 where our experts are standing by to respond in all four languages.
02:39 [Francine Lacqua] Now let's start off by hearing from
02:40 the World Bank Group President, David Malpass. Mr. Malpass, over to you.
02:47 [David Malpass] Thank you very much, Francine.
02:50 Thank you everyone for joining us today for the launch of this year's
02:55 World Development Report. It's called Finance for an Equitable Recovery. Let me begin
03:00 by thanking Carmen Reinhart and the WDR team for the timely report. And I also want to welcome
03:07 our special guest and friends, Sri Mulyani, Agustin Carstens and James Mwangi.
03:14 I'm very much looking forward to your discussion.
03:16 I'll say a few words now and then turn over to you.
03:20 [David Malpass] As we're all too familiar, the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdowns
03:24 have created the most significant economic crisis in almost a century.
03:30 It's challenging the effectiveness of civil and institutional structures around the world.
03:37 And it's adding to fragility and violence that's facing many parts of the world.
03:42 The result is a crisis for foreign policy and for development policy, as well as economics.
03:50 [David Malpass] In 2020 economic output contracted in 90% of countries
03:55 and the global economy shrank by 3%. Global poverty rates rose for the first time
04:01 in more than 20 years. Inequality has worsened,
04:05 and the poorer and the most disadvantaged were hardest hit
04:10 by the downturn and are being left behind in the recovery. The recovery itself is uneven and
04:17 faces many hurdles. Geopolitical tensions and fragility are major recovery risks, as we see
04:24 every day. New diseases and pathogens are a risk, as are existing ones and COVID variants.
04:32 [David Malpass] The World Bank Group works extensively on healthcare systems
04:36 around the world to bolster preparedness and provide a variety of surge financing tools.
04:43 Inflation will be hard to stop and hits the poor the hardest.
04:48 The two primary tools being considered seem unlikely to be enough. Gradual interest rate
04:55 hikes would still leave real interest rates, low or negative. The second tool, tapering
05:02 Central Bank asset purchases, still leaves huge distortions in the global financial system.
05:09 [David Malpass] Under the current post monetarist system, Central
05:14 Banks have two other tools. Financial regulatory policy, that's a topic of today's discussion
05:20 for developing countries, and also the duration of Central Bank assets and the duration of government
05:28 debt. The use of these two tools will be a key variable in reducing inflation more quickly.
05:36 [David Malpass] The current global support for bond issuers
05:40 continues to concentrate capital wealth and excess government spending in a very
05:46 narrow segment of advanced economies. It's the inequality that we observe every day.
05:53 This comes at the expense of small businesses, slow growth in median income and reversals in development.
06:01 The misallocation leaves weakness in productive investments,
06:06 in job training, and in the logistics needed to improve supply chains. That's not an argument
06:14 for faster interest rate hikes, which themselves cause damage, especially on new businesses and on
06:21 developing countries. Rather, it's an argument for governments and Central Banks to use more
06:27 of their tools at the same time. Rather than Central Banks buying back and owning large,
06:34 long duration debt, there needs to be more focus on lengthening the maturity and transparency
06:41 of all levels of government debt outstanding and slowing the growth in national debt.
06:47 [David Malpass] There needs to be the same
06:49 focus on debt transparency and sustainability in advanced economies that we have been advocating
06:55 strongly for developing countries. Similarly, it's vital that financial regulatory policy and
07:02 advanced economies recognize the importance of working capital and trade finance,
07:08 as we are doing in developing countries, even in today's report. Floating rates, small
07:14 business loans form the financial foundation of development, yet will be severely disadvantaged,
07:21 if Central Banks simply rely on interest rate hikes to try to get ahead of inflation.
07:27 [David Malpass] The new WDR focuses on developing countries
07:32 and on the interrelated economic risks
07:35 and spillovers between the balance sheets of households, businesses, financial institutions,
07:41 and governments. And also on the central role that finance needs to play in supporting a recovery.
07:50 The report discusses a variety of financial fragilities and risks.
07:54 [David Malpass] First, private debt is at a record high and
07:57 credit conditions are tightening. A growing share of businesses are expecting to fall into arrears.
08:03 A new wave of loan defaults would lead banks to tighten their lending standards.
08:09 This is procyclical, deepening the downturn, it worsens inequality,
08:14 typically hitting low income households and small businesses the hardest.
08:18 [David Malpass] And second, sovereign debt has also spiked
08:22 during the pandemic. It's reached new highs for some governments as revenues plummeted and related
08:29 COVID-19 expenditure soared. Surges in domestic government borrowing can crowd out lending to
08:37 the private sector and misallocate capital, as banks shift their lending to governments and
08:44 expose banks to concentrated sovereign risk. These are some of the topics in WDR today.
08:53 [David Malpass] So as monetary policy tightens
08:57 in the advanced economies, debt servicing and rollovers will become a greater burden.
09:02 It's critical that risks be uncovered and managed early. The alternative
09:09 protracted debt crises and restructurings, risks derailing growth and development for years.
09:16 [David Malpass] To work toward more sustainable debt,
09:20 a top priority is improved transparency of both public and private debt. This helps detect
09:27 financial risk and enables the proactive management of debt. We need effective
09:34 restructuring tools, both for government and private debt. Currently, there are no
09:39 predictable or orderly systems for sovereign debt restructuring and the implementation of the G20
09:46 Common Framework is stalled. For the medium and longer term, continued access to finance will be
09:53 critical to a robust recovery. Innovations in technology, including digital payments,
09:59 will be central, especially for low income households and medium and small enterprises.
10:05 [David Malpass] Let me conclude
10:06 by saying that I'm very pleased with the timely release of this report
10:11 and I commend it to you. And now, we have an excellent panel here today to discuss
10:17 these issues in more detail. So I'll pass the floor, to get them started. Thanks everyone.
10:24 [Francine Lacqua] Wonderful. Thank you so much.
10:25 Thank you so much for providing this global context.
10:28 Now, before we turn to the panel, let's also hear from Leora Klapper, Director of WDR 2022,
10:33 who will give us a snapshot of the report's main fine endings and policy recommendations. - Leora.
10:50 [Leora Klapper] Thank you, President Malpass.
10:53 This report is about identifying and resolving
10:55 financial risks that have been revealed or worsened during the pandemic, which could
10:59 threaten the broader economic recovery. This report comes at a point in the COVID-19 crisis,
11:05 when the economic programs that were implemented early in the pandemic to limit the immediate
11:09 financial impact of the crisis, now need to be scaled back. In many countries, that means
11:14 an end to support payments and debt moratoria for households and businesses, and to relax accounting
11:20 standards before households and businesses have recovered their pre-pandemic income levels.
11:25 [Leora Klapper] That creates a potential for unprecedented financial risks
11:29 for both governments and the private sector.
11:32 Risks that policy makers can't necessarily see in advance, through support measures,
11:37 like the late credit reporting that can mask the true economic health of borrowers.
11:41 [Leora Klapper] One of the central messages of the report,
11:44 is that when risks appear in one sector of the economy, they don't remain there. The balance
11:48 sheets of households, businesses, banks, microfinance institutions, and governments,
11:53 are all interconnected. To the extent, that a risk that arises in one of these sectors
11:57 can trigger a financial chain reaction that can spill over and destabilize the entire economy.
12:02 [Leora Klapper] For example, when families and
12:04 businesses face a loss of income, they may default on their debts. Lenders are then saddled with poor
12:10 loan quality and in response tend to reduce new lending. Almost everyone suffers when the economy
12:15 experiences a credit crunch, but the worst impacts hit low income households and small businesses who
12:21 rely on credit to drive spending and investments. And these circumstances and negative feedback loop
12:26 between financial sector performance and real economic activity can drive income and equality.
12:31 [Leora Klapper] And there's reason to be worried.
12:34 For example, about half of all businesses surveyed across selected low and middle income countries,
12:38 report that they expect to fall into arrears. Loan default could now sharply
12:43 increase. And we've seen in past crises that private debts can become public debts,
12:48 if governments are forced to bail out struggling financial institutions. In addition, escalating
12:53 levels of sovereign debt in the context of lower government revenue from taxes,
12:57 they weaken the government's ability to support households and firms and weaken bank balance
13:01 sheets if banks were holding local government debt. There's also the challenge of global risks
13:07 such as rising interest rates and inflation, which have the largest effect on the poorest people.
13:11 [Leora Klapper] This WDR focuses on solutions for four key areas of risk.
13:17 First, debt moratoria and freezes in credit reporting helped prevent a wave of loan
13:22 defaults during the pandemic, but they also reduced credit market transparency.
13:27 Lenders must now prioritize identifying and reducing non-performing loans. Delayed
13:32 action can threaten financial stability, reduce access to credit, discourage entrepreneurship.
13:37 [Leora Klapper] Second, delayed resolution of distressed debt
13:40 can waste time and the productive use of assets and human capital. Effective insolvency systems
13:46 facilitate conciliation and mediation, as well as simplified and quicker adequate work [inaudible]
13:52 for small and medium sized businesses. These can prevent capital from flowing
13:56 to unprofitable businesses and allowing individual debtors to escape the stigma of debt distress.
14:02 [Leora Klapper] The third risk is tighter access to credit.
14:05 Digital financial tools and lending models can help lenders better manage credit
14:10 and continue lending. Policymakers should put in place pro-innovation regulations
14:15 and upgrade financial infrastructure, ensuring consumer protection.
14:18 [Leora Klapper] And fourth, many governments had
14:21 to borrow to finance their pandemic spending, pushing sovereign debt to new highs. Now the
14:26 proactive management and reduction of sovereign debt is important to free up fiscal resources
14:32 to support the recovery and the transformation towards a greener world economy and prevent the
14:36 problems associated with sovereign debt distress, including prolonged recessions and high inflation.
14:42 [Leora Klapper] Although we highlight many
14:43 challenges to the recovery, we're optimistic about the tools for addressing these risks
14:48 and the interlinkages in the economy can work in a positive direction as well. A sustainable public
14:53 debt, a sound banking system and growing private sector can mutually reinforce a robust recovery.
15:00 We hope this report can help governments identify which policies should surface as high priorities
15:06 and how to best allocate scarce resources to support an equitable recovery. Thank you.
15:11 [Francine Lacqua] Thank you so much, Leora,
15:14 and I have to say it's one fantastic report for those of you who have not picked it up yet. Now
15:19 for those who've joined us late, we're discussing, of course, the just released World Development
15:23 Report, Finance for Equitable Recovery. Follow us on social media using #WDR2021.
15:29 [Francine Lacqua] Now let's turn to our panel.
15:30 And with us, we have Carmen Reinhart, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
15:34 of the World Bank Group, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Minister of Finance, of Indonesia,
15:40 Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements,
15:44 and James Mwangi, Group Chief Executive Officer, Equity Group Holdings, Kenya.
15:48 [Francine Lacqua] So thank you all for joining
15:50 us and thank you for the many questions that I'm already getting. Please continue
15:53 sending them through. Now let's pick up on some of the points raised by David Malpass
15:57 and Leora, and Minister Indrawati, turning to you first. As a Minister of Finance, of a large
16:03 middle income country, how have you managed financial sector risks and the challenges,
16:07 of course, of debt in your country to try and support a robust and equitable recovery?
16:11 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] First, thank you so much for this invitation
16:15 and congratulations for the WDR, which is very timely in terms of the topic.
16:21 The pandemic definitely have a very significant implication to many countries in the world,
16:28 including developing and emerging. The contraction of the economy, especially in 2020,
16:35 which is followed by the contraction on the revenue side. For Indonesia, for example,
16:39 the contraction of the economy is 2.07 in 2020, and then contraction on the revenue side,
16:47 which is the revenue, dropped by 16% while the spending increase by 12%. That's widened
16:54 the deficit in 2020, the first year of pandemic.
16:58 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Luckily for Indonesia, I think, the contraction of
17:02 the economy is relatively modest and how we respond to this contraction with the countercyclical,
17:09 both on the fiscal side and monetary side, as well as regulatory forbearance on a financial
17:15 sector regulation. Those have been put in three years extraordinary policy, which is allowed by
17:25 our emergency law. This actually tried to create a discipline so that we are not going to continue
17:33 in emergency and extraordinary situation, also paving the way for the exit policy.
17:39 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] So within this context,
17:41 now the recovery in 2021, driven by, of course, advanced economies, commodity prices, which also for
17:49 Indonesia creating also a very strong recovery on our fiscal. The revenue increased by 19%
17:56 while the spending are control around 7% growth. So the deficit has been dropped from 6.1% to 4.6%
18:07 only within one year. And for this year, we are going to expect the deficit will
18:13 be declined even further, below 4% of GDP. So that within three year we will be able to return
18:20 to what we call it, fiscal discipline rule, below 3% maximum deficit.
18:25 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] How we managed this situation? First, I think
18:28 there is a discipline in using the fiscal policy, really focusing on health, related to COVID,
18:37 social safety net, in order to reduce the inequality and especially protecting the society,
18:43 which is the most vulnerable one. And also focusing on small and medium enterprises
18:49 to recover the economy. The recovery of the economy, in terms of growth, has been accelerated,
18:55 especially on the last quarter of last year, in which we are able to achieve
19:01 3.7% of the whole year last year. But this is also contributed by quite even distribution of
19:11 recovery, whether this is on a consumption, investment and also very strong export.
19:17 On the supply side, production side, across the board, in this case from manufacturing,
19:23 trade, as well as services sector, which is also quite rebound as well as recover.
19:30 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] So this is a good news for
19:31 Indonesia. So within this context, in order for us to be able to manage the fiscal risk,
19:38 we did what we have to do in this case. While we are addressing the issue of pandemic, we also
19:46 deepen our reform. Tax reform is very critical for Indonesia. So we passed the legislation
19:52 to improve the tax collection, including increasing VAT as well as increasing the
19:57 tax bracket for the personal income tax and also increasing the tax free. This will be implemented
20:05 this year and next year and 2025. So this is also a very careful design, not to disrupt the recovery
20:14 process, while at the same time, consolidating the fiscal in a very measured, but also credible way.
20:21 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] The second one, we enjoy the
20:24 support from Central Bank. The Central Bank during this pandemic situation allow to buy
20:30 government bonds directly, but that can only be done related to the COVID as well as a social
20:37 safety net. So that's create a disciplines. We are not abusing as well as undermining
20:44 the independence of the Central Bank. Inflation in Indonesia is still very low. We're just below 2%,
20:51 and that's provide us with also a strong room for this maneuver on the monetary side.
20:57 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Regulatory forbearance on the financial sector
21:00 has been provided for three years until 2023. So basically for Indonesia, we are designing the exit
21:09 policy in a very measured and calculated way. Of course, by seeing the recovery process,
21:16 which is now undergoing, and we do hope of course that the pandemic is not getting worse because
21:22 the vaccination is already now achieved 70% of the population and we even provide a booster.
21:28 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] So this combination will
21:30 provide us more confidence on the growth recovery,
21:34 fiscal discipline and managing the debt. So when the interest rate globally increased
21:40 because of the increase in advanced country, we have a much better and stronger foundation.
21:46 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] One last thing is, of course,
21:48 on external balance, that is balance of payment, different from the taper tantrum, 2013,
21:55 Indonesia is now having a surplus in both trade, as well as current account balance.
22:00 So that's provide also a stronger position for us to embrace this increasing interest rate globally.
22:09 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] So that all the foundation
22:12 that we are trying to do while addressing the issue of pandemic but at the same time, also, we
22:19 create a room for the reform so that the foundation for the economy can be sanctioned.
22:24 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Thank you.
22:25 [Francine Lacqua] Fabulous. Thank you so much Minister.
22:27 And I have to correct myself, because I said WDR 2021, but of course it's WDR 2022 for the hashtag.
22:34 The last thing I want to do is, add a couple of months to a pandemic year. But thank you Minister
22:38 for those remarks. Now, Ms. Reinhart, from the position of a global multilateral bank and lender,
22:43 what are some of the post pandemic risks to the financial sector and how can governments
22:47 try to mitigate these risks as financial stimulus policies are starting to be unwound?
22:53 [Carmen Reinhart] So, first of all, I think it's important
23:00 to recognize, and this is one of the messages of the WDR, is that there is no one size fits all.
23:06 The risks differ considerably across countries and therefore the appropriate policy response
23:15 does as well. We just heard from Minister Mulyani, most countries at the moment are not as fortunate,
23:26 and have not had the benefit of recovery and low inflation, the combination that Indonesia has.
23:33 [Carmen Reinhart] So a big challenge is,
23:38 of course, for those countries where recovery has yet really to take hold, and that is the majority.
23:46 The majority of countries at the moment have per capita incomes that are below what they were
23:53 in 2019, before COVID. They have not fully recovered. And of course, per capita incomes
23:58 correlate with a lot of other economic and social indicators like poverty, health and so on.
24:05 [Carmen Reinhart] Also, most developing and emerging markets have
24:13 higher inflation, again, different from what we heard on Indonesia. So real wages
24:21 are also being eroded. How does this setting, in which
24:28 a recovery is very desirable and a sustainable, equitable recovery is very desirable, how does
24:34 it connect to the story in the WDR? Well, healthy recoveries need healthy financial institutions,
24:44 and they need also healthy governments. Now it is fairly well known at this stage, that
24:52 over the last few years, even before COVID, the state of health of many low income countries,
24:59 public finances is been strained. The share of countries in debt distress, or at high
25:06 risk of debt distress has risen steadily, and it's really in alarming territory. But
25:16 I think an area that has not received sufficient attention during the whole pandemic experience is
25:26 what these draconian declines in income, the uncertainty, the stop go,
25:34 we have closed business, we have open business, the duration, we're on our third year. What all
25:40 of this has done to private sector, household balance sheets, to corporate balance sheets.
25:48 [Carmen Reinhart] And of course, we already heard from the Minister,
25:52 the response, monetary and fiscal policy stimulus has gotten the headlines, but financial sector
26:02 policies have also been very important and really unprecedented during the pandemic. So
26:15 excellent timing in terms of counter cyclical,
26:18 allowing forbearance, so that corporates and households don't have to, in the midst
26:28 of an emergency really, don't have to repay their debts, but there are unintended consequences,
26:35 that those policies have also applied forbearance to accounting standards.
26:41 [Carmen Reinhart] So we've had about 20 years of
26:48 progress in many emerging and developing countries towards more transparency and balance sheets,
26:53 towards better and more standardized accounting of what is non-performing loans. And
27:03 the pandemic has really set that back.
27:07 So a concern that we reiterate again, and we heard from this, from both David, from Leora,
27:16 is to what extent are we going to see risks from the things we see or from the things we don't see?
27:29 [Carmen Reinhart] And let me say this, having
27:31 studied financial crisis for decades, it's often what we don't see that really triggers a crisis.
27:40 In the global financial crisis afterwards, the surprise was Greek debts were a lot bigger
27:48 than previously thought. In the Asian crisis of '97, it was thought that
27:56 Thailand Central Bank had much higher level reserves than it turned out to have.
28:01 And now the concern that we put forth is that, be very careful,
28:08 take stock quickly, do stress testing, get a handle on non-performing loans, because
28:15 I think the forbearance policies that have been so helpful in providing
28:20 support to households and firms during the pandemic, have had unintended consequences
28:26 of making much more opaque, the balance sheet of banks. And that could be a very negative surprise.
28:33 [Carmen Reinhart] I will conclude by saying
28:35 that if you look at some of the World Bank's Pulse surveys, which survey medium and small enterprises
28:45 mostly, and one of the questions those surveys ask is, are you in arrears now, or are you likely to
28:52 be in arrears six months from now? The answer to those surveys is, worrisomely, overwhelmingly yes.
29:05 The average response is, about 40% of the firms say that they're either in arrears or expect to
29:11 be. And a significant share of countries, the share saying yes to arrears, is much higher.
29:17 How does that connect to a picture where nothing has happened in non-performing loans?
29:22 [Carmen Reinhart] So be aware of the risks that you don't see,
29:26 I think is a cautionary message. And therefore the importance of stepping up surveillance,
29:33 to assess the damage on a timely basis and act accordingly, is really
29:40 a call for action on the part of the WDR. And I would conclude now by saying that again,
29:49 this is not a one size fits all. We try to work with countries depending on their specific needs.
29:56 [Francine Lacqua] All right. Thank you so much for that.
29:59 Mr. Carstens, from your global bird's eye perspective, on the role that Central Banks and financial
30:04 regulators play, how can rising government debt be managed, to lessen again the risk of debt crisis,
30:09 but also try and support some of these more equitable societies that we're trying to build.
30:14 [Agustin Carstens]
30:16 Thank you very much, Francine. Thank you to the World Bank,
30:19 to David and Carmen for having inviting me to this event and congratulations for the World
30:26 Development Report. Great to see also Sri Mulyani, recognize her for her work on the G20.
30:35 [Agustin Carstens] Let me start from a key principle here. I think
30:42 that the real issue we have been facing over the last two years is something that has to do with
30:48 a real shock. The real shock was a pandemic and it had a very important impact on economic activity.
30:55 Now, macro policies have been implemented to smooth the initial impact, to impede that this
31:01 real shock translate into depression and into a financial crisis. And I think so far so good.
31:09 We have managed to do that. The monetary fiscal and financial policies were always, from the out
31:16 start, predicated on the basis that they would be an immediate buffer to the magnitude of the shock.
31:24 [Agustin Carstens] At the end of the day,
31:25 the shock has had an impact on the real sector of the economy, on the business cycle,
31:31 on the allocation of resources. The solution will require a major relocation of resources
31:38 in the economy, and more than anything, to push very hard structural reforms that would increase
31:45 potential growth. I think a lot of the problems we're facing would be minimized if growth would be
31:53 enhanced. And as a matter of fact, in many emerging and developing countries,
31:57 the growth problem started already since the mid of last decade.
32:03 [Agustin Carstens] It's important that the macro policies can
32:07 transfer the baton to other type of policies that address more directly the nature of the shocks.
32:16 As the report very well establishes, some of the macro policies will need to enter
32:22 into another phase. Why? Because they have hit their limits.
32:27 Certainly monetary policy cannot go further than where it is.
32:32 [Agustin Carstens] It needs to start
32:34 reining in. And now it has to be, as Carmen says, one size doesn't fit all,
32:42 but certainly Central Banks need to be ahead of the curve, anchor inflation expectations and
32:48 make inflation reach a more normal level without generating a major slowdown in economic activity
33:00 and in the financial sector. A smooth landing is what Central Banks are looking
33:06 for. And I think with the instruments they have, they will be able to do that.
33:11 [Agustin Carstens] Now, in terms of your
33:12 specific question about government debt, I think we face today a real interesting circumstance,
33:22 and that piece, where even growth has been lower than expected or desired, it still is
33:29 higher than real interest rates and than nominal interest rates in many countries.
33:35 So that gives them time, gives time governments, to start bringing back order into their finances.
33:44 [Agustin Carstens] Obviously, there might be cases of major urgency,
33:51 but in most of the cases, there is time also to gradually start looking after a sustainable debt.
34:00 And here, let me bring back the issue of growth. The key equation here, or calculus, or indicator,
34:10 that Carmen knows extremely well, is a difference between interest rates and growth rates.
34:16 If we work more on work growth rates through time, I think that we can diffuse many of the
34:23 problems in many countries. And now this also calls for the allocation of government resources
34:34 and the policies, that on the fiscal side can be implemented. I think that now we need to
34:39 move more into more focused and targeted type of policies that can enhance the resiliency of firms.
34:48 [Agustin Carstens] Not of all of them, because we know that they have
34:51 been sectoral shifts, shifts in demand and so on. And some firms, regretfully, will not be viable.
34:58 We need to be able to support employment, so that employment supports consumption. And this
35:06 continues with the access to financial services to a lot of the population.
35:10 [Agustin Carstens] So there are many different aspects where,
35:14 if the policies are fine tuned are well directed, I think that we can manage to
35:22 bring this into a route of least pain as possible. For me, the key is that not only Central Banks,
35:33 Finance ministries, and so on, need to use all of their instruments, but we need to use
35:40 all the instruments that are available in the economic policy front, and others too. I think
35:46 that we need to focus is, towards growth, towards making reallocation of resources more efficient.
35:52 [Agustin Carstens] So, as I said at the outset,
35:57 the limits of the macro policies will not hurt the economic recovery and the baton can be taken
36:05 over by a real sector policy that for sure, the World Bank always do a great job in this field.
36:15 [Francine Lacqua] Great. Thank you so much, Mr. Carstens. Now,
36:19 Mr. Mwangi, from the private sector perspective, what kinds of government policy could help
36:23 mitigate financial risks that they're also facing? And also encourage inclusive access to finance?
36:30 [James Mwangi] Thank you very much. I think the situation
36:34 where we are, particularly developing countries, given that this is more of an economic shock,
36:42 the financial sector will only be successful if it works hand in hand with governments
36:48 that allows policy change. Unfortunately, most of the governments of developing countries
36:55 have no headroom to be able to put stimulus and significant impact. And they have not
37:02 had big impact and have really focused on the social aspect.
37:07 [James Mwangi] So for the governmental movement, the best is to
37:12 really create elaborate partnerships and try and harmonize, particularly the public private sector
37:20 collaboration, which can really mobilize citizens to play a more larger role.
37:28 I think today, the bigger private sector banks like Equity Bank,
37:32 I think needs to be incentivized by government so that they play more of a developmental
37:38 role where they don't really focus on the financial sector, but seeks partnerships,
37:44 whether it's with the development banks or whether it is with the philanthropic world.
37:52 [James Mwangi] So that the approach they take
37:54 is not the traditional financing and commercial approach, but it's a developmental approach
38:00 that builds the financial capabilities, provide financial tools. But more importantly, to ensure
38:09 the bulk of the population is not left behind. As social interventions,
38:16 particularly capacity building, so that people are able to bounce [inaudible 00:38:22]
38:24 adversely affected. And then the [inaudible 00:38:27] have a mix such that it's not the
38:29 short term financing of banks, but it's a mix of long term development financing,
38:36 together with the commercial bank financing, to allow recovery, and particularly, to also allow
38:44 development of local and regional supply chains to replace the broken global supply chains.
38:50 [James Mwangi] Another aspect is policy change. This then
38:55 means that, if the private sector is to [inaudible 00:38:58] a developmental approach, there must be
39:01 policy change that allows that, and particularly links the micro and macro policies. So that the
39:13 lead economy can then be able to play an active role. Whether these will then look at incentives,
39:22 whether these will work in collaborations and partnerships, or in a case to case basis,
39:29 or it is more of sectoral approach, I think, it will depend from one country to the other.
39:37 [James Mwangi] The last one is the [inaudible 00:39:39] for
39:40 governments to think really how to deal with crowding out in the private sector.
39:47 We've realized the banks have responded by really looking at the risk perspective. And
39:54 part of [inaudible 00:39:55] looking at the risk perspective of lending because of the high NPLs
40:01 has been more, take the sovereign risk. And as more of the government tries to
40:09 fill in and replace the lost income in terms of tax revenues through debt correction,
40:18 they should strike a balance such that they don't crowd out completely private sector. That
40:24 then is bringing a very significant stimulus [inaudible 00:40:28] out to the lead economy.
40:30 [James Mwangi] So that is how
40:31 I see where the government can come in and take a more, like
40:37 in East Africa, maybe a more regional approach other than a national approach, may help. So that
40:45 cross border trade and investment then plays a bigger role in bringing back the recovery
40:54 and stimulating recovery, than may be government. So the issue of re looking at markets and
41:01 maybe sacrificing a bit of sovereignty to regional policies that allow cross border trade,
41:10 that allow larger markets, that allow, maybe ease of trade, maybe a way to approach this recovery.
41:19 [Francine Lacqua] Mr. Mwangi, thank so much.
41:22 So let's, first of all, welcome the audience who have tuned in right now. We're discussing
41:28 the just released World Development Report on Finance for Equitable Recovery. Now, we're also
41:33 asking everyone participating, listening in, or watching us, to take a poll. In an ideal world,
41:39 and this is a complicated question, but in an ideal world, policymakers should be able
41:43 to address all these challenges, but given that they can't, they have to prioritize.
41:47 [Francine Lacqua] So what do you think could be
41:49 the priority to support an equitable recovery, the first priority. So you can vote, its A, B,
41:54 C or D. 'A', identify and address non-performing loans and financial sector stability, 'B' resolve
42:02 distress loans of households and businesses. If you answer 'C', and I think you can just actually
42:07 type it on the website. 'C' is ensure access to credit, especially for low income households
42:13 and small businesses, and 'D' finally, tackle record high sovereign debts.
42:17 [Francine Lacqua] We will reveal the answers at the end,
42:20 in about 15 minutes from now, but Minister Indrawati, maybe one of the things that we
42:27 need to look at, and I'll ask all of you the same question in about one or two minutes,
42:31 really to try and get the conversation going is, what can policy makers,
42:35 at this point, at this juncture in time, and we've seen actually some of the difficulties
42:39 in addressing all of these together. But what can policy makers do with high levels of private
42:44 debt whilst avoiding this credit crunch or sustained lending by banks to zombie firms?
42:50 There's not a magic answer, but what signs should they be looking out for?
42:55 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] I think if the recovery of the economy
43:00 can be accelerated, that will provide a room for the bank to address the non-performing loans.
43:07 Because as I said earlier, even in Indonesia, we provide the regulatory forbearance for
43:14 the financial sector, especially bank, for three years until 2023. And that mean the NPL,
43:21 although currently at the 3% level, but they are actually have to provide the additional capital
43:31 reserve in order to anticipate the realized non-performing loan by the end of this policy.
43:39 And that's why, when the recovery process is accelerated, the bank definitely will see that
43:46 the corporation, the corporate debt, which is under restructuring, can become current again,
43:52 and they can serve their debt again. That is a good solution. So definitely the recovery economy
44:00 is necessary condition for this banking sector, and the exposure to the non-performing loan
44:08 can be actually decreased or can be addressed.
44:12 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] The second one is, of course,
44:14 the stability of the economy in the form of the interest rate. As much as possible,
44:18 if you can avoid this disruption of the recovery, as we can see that the inflation coming, whether
44:25 this is coming from the supply side disruption, labor shortage in the advanced country.
44:31 For Indonesia, we don't have labor shortage, in this case. Even when our unemployment rate
44:38 has actually increased from 5.2 to 7% because of the COVID in 2020, and our
44:46 recovery process also accompanied by declining unemployment, but it's still at the 6.4 from 9%.
44:54 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] And of course, in Indonesia,
44:56 unlike in a more advanced country, we have an informal sector.
44:59 So labor supply is actually not a problem. Supply disruption, maybe also not really a problem.
45:06 We do have the pressure from the inflation eventually coming from the commodity price,
45:13 like the [inaudible 00:45:15] coal, oil, which is going to be also creating a pressure.
45:19 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] The inflation on the producer side is actually
45:24 much higher, but inflation at the consumer side, still the headline on the consumer inflation,
45:30 is still very low. Some of it is because of our administered price. That is the government
45:36 absorbed this increasing price through subsidy, but that's only one part of the issue. But low
45:44 inflation, high growth, definitely will have a lot of restructuring of the loan to become current.
45:51 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] The second one, this also create
45:54 a better chance for the banking sector, to restore their intermediary function.
46:00 To be honest, during this pandemic in 2020, the credit crunch is actually quite severe.
46:08 We are contracted by around 5%. So if you can combine between, on the supply side mobility has
46:15 been stopped and then the credit is also stopped or declined sharply, NPL is going to be increased.
46:22 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Bank will take care of their own balance
46:25 sheet first. And that is exactly also what the government really want because we don't want to
46:31 face the pandemic, that is a health crisis, then can create social crisis when the people become
46:38 unemployed and becoming poor. Then combined with the banking crisis. So we want to make
46:45 sure that the bank and financial sector will be actually relatively stable. They have to
46:51 do additional capital adequacy ratio and at now 25%. So I think it's relatively robust.
46:58 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] And we also see that the non-performing
47:02 loan is not declined. And I think the [inaudible 00:47:05] restructure and it becoming current
47:07 again. So it's good, the right indication for restoring to the normal level again.
47:15 The problem for Indonesia, maybe in this case, Carmen and Agustin, during this special situation,
47:24 we are supported by Central Bank who become a standby buyer of the government financing.
47:30 At the same time, the bank doesn't want to lend commercially because it's too risky. So they
47:38 prefer to buy government bonds. So the government deficit,
47:43 fiscal deficit has been actually supported directly by Central Bank, and the fact that
47:50 banking sector is not lending. Now, if we are going to normalize, Central Bank stop financing
47:58 and bank will start lending to the commercial, then fiscal need to reduce the deficit. So this
48:05 is going to be like the combination of the macro level, which is linked to the recovery process.
48:10 [Francine Lacqua] Minister. Thank you so much. Carmen
48:13 Reinhart, maybe just a question quickly, on zombie companies, where do you worry about them the most?
48:18 And then I have a question also for you, from an audience member, which is basically, what measures
48:23 should Latin American countries take now so as not to exacerbate some of the acute problems
48:28 that they had before the pandemic, and this person mentions, for example,
48:33 the lack of basic services, but also some of the corruption that we could see out there.
48:39 [Carmen Reinhart] Well, to be very direct, we don't address,
48:50 by no means, the list of problems either created or exacerbated by COVID. It's a very long list.
48:59 We are focused in the WDR on these aspects of finance that we think are very critical. And we
49:07 just heard the minister and they're very critical to recovery. In relation to the prior question, as
49:19 the minister said, recovery is essential. A rising tide lifts all boats, I believe it's the same.
49:29 [Carmen Reinhart] So that's very critical,
49:31 but I think what to do right now, and this is also very applicable to Latin America,
49:38 including Central America, where some of the business survey reports that I mentioned, are also
49:47 somewhat troubling in their disconnect with non-performing loans, is I think, important
49:54 stock taking. And it's complacency. We don't really want to hear about non-performing loans.
50:06 [Carmen Reinhart] Banks historically,
50:08 historically time and time again, have engaged in evergreening, which goes directly to your
50:15 question. You don't recognize the loss. You don't take the hit right now in your balance sheet. You
50:21 continue to lend, but if you continue to lend to a firm that has really ceased to be productive,
50:30 it is a diversion of resources. And we are dealing with economies that are scarce in resources.
50:38 And so the prospect of having zombie lending, zombie firms,
50:44 is very detrimental to the vibrant role that banks could play in stimulating the private sector.
50:56 [Carmen Reinhart] And this goes to comments also, that James and
51:02 the Minister have made, on also the crowding out problem. So a credit crunch could ensue because
51:16 banks are engaged in lending to zombie firms. A credit crunch could ensue because
51:24 they are averse, and this is what the Minister was saying, averse to lending to the private sector.
51:31 This is commonplace during periods of uncertainty. They prefer to lend to the government. And then if
51:39 governments are aggressive in domestic borrowing, credit crunch can occur because of crowding out.
51:48 [Carmen Reinhart] So, we want to avoid credit crunches, and
51:54 they're important steps on debt restructuring and so on, that governments,
51:59 regulators, I want to stress the role of regulators. We've talked about Central Banks
52:04 and fiscal authorities, but regulators have a big role here. And as do courts.
52:08 [Francine Lacqua] [inaudible 00:52:10] Reinhart,
52:10 can I just pin you down? When you talk about a credit crunch,
52:13 what kind of probability at this point are we talking about?
52:16 [Carmen Reinhart] Look, again, I'm not dodging your question.
52:20 It's not a one size fits all. In some countries, we have been in a credit crunch already.
52:32 In part that reflects the fact that, as I alluded to in my earlier remarks for the majority of
52:38 developing countries, the majority, they have not yet recovered their pre COVID level of income. So
52:48 for many, the credit crunch is already underway, and we've seen the pattern that we heard from in
52:54 Indonesia, where more lending is going to the government from the banks, either because the
52:59 banks are risk averse, the government just needs to borrow more or a combination of the two.
53:06 But this is not hypothetical, is the point that I'm making. And in many cases,
53:15 extending into 2022 and beyond, really jeopardizes the prospect for private sector recovery.
53:24 [Francine Lacqua] Great. Thank you so much.
53:27 Agustin Carstens, I don't know whether you wanted to talk about
53:31 what you think is a possible probability at this juncture in time, of something to go severely
53:35 wrong, more wrong than we've seen in the last couple of years. But also how can policy makers
53:39 encourage at the same time, banks and fintechs to leverage some of the digital financial
53:45 technology, to provide financial services whilst managing the other risks?
53:49 [Agustin Carstens] Well, picking up on what Carmen said
53:55 in terms of credit crunch and so and so forth, I think something that we should realize is that
54:03 this period of difficulty in the world economy is not a result of a financial crisis.
54:12 If we compare this to 2008, '09, '10, then it was a real financial crisis.
54:19 The epicenter of the problem was in the financial sector. Here,
54:23 it's not the case. Here, again, let me insist, this is a real sector type of crisis.
54:29 [Agustin Carstens] So in this case,
54:31 I think that the financial sector can really be part of the solution. And I think so far
54:36 it has been part of the solution. By and large, we don't see any banking crisis.
54:42 In most countries, we don't see any banking crisis looming. I think that the Basel core
54:50 principles that were developed after the previous financial crisis, have done a very good job.
54:55 [Agustin Carstens] I think that commercial banks
54:57 have a higher loss absorbing capacity. I think so far, they have been engaging in lending and yes,
55:05 it probably hasn't been as fast as we would like to see, because as many of the speakers in this
55:11 event has said, there is a lot of uncertainty out there. There is a lot of risk out there.
55:16 And I think one of the roles, where I think there is still a scope for joint action
55:24 between the public and the private sector, is precisely how can this uncertainty and how
55:30 can these risks be shared between public and private sectors in an efficient way?
55:35 [Agustin Carstens] I think many lending can be
55:38 done through public development banks. I think international financial institutions can also
55:45 bring to the table creative financing programs, where risks can be allocated in a more efficient
55:55 way and this better location of risks and better management of uncertainty can unleash
56:02 more private sector lending. The capacity is there. We just need to find out how can we
56:09 unleash it. And this has a lot to do with risks. And of course, to deal with the pandemic in the
56:15 first place. And as I have been insisted, getting more growth going, would also help tremendously.
56:21 [Francine Lacqua] It certainly would.
56:23 I actually have the results of the poll, which I'll tell you in a second and then go to Mr. Mwangi.
56:27 [Francine Lacqua] So the poll results, about 60% of people
56:30 who took the poll, across all four languages, say the most important priority is 'C',
56:37 which is to ensure access to credit for low income households and small businesses.
56:41 [Francine Lacqua] So Mr. Mwangi, it's easier said than done.
56:45 Of course we don't like to do that, but what are the challenges?
56:48 If this is a priority and I don't know, out of the four questions, if it is your
56:51 priority, or it should be, of course, all of our priority, but how'd you get this done?
56:57 [James Mwangi] Truly. I agree that the priority should be availing access to credit,
57:05 particularly for small businesses. Essentially, small businesses provide massive employment,
57:10 particularly in the developing economies.
57:12 They constitute the informal sector, which in some countries, like in East Africa,
57:17 they're just above 90% of the entire economy. So it is really the basis of survival for households.
57:24 [James Mwangi] The second thing is,
57:26 the biggest employer in emerging markets, the jobs are in the informal sector. So the best we can do
57:33 for ourselves is to fast track the recovery of that sector so that we provide relief to
57:42 the population and most of them are in the lead economy. So then the economy would start firing.
57:49 [James Mwangi] How would we do this? I think it has
57:53 been said by my colleagues, I think development banks and international financial institutions can
57:58 partner with the commercial banks, particularly, to provide a diversified portfolio of credit.
58:05 [James Mwangi] So that feeds in each category. I think
58:09 philanthropic organizations, foundations, and development institutions can provide
58:15 guarantees because most of these businesses had closed. So they're
58:20 bouncing back. They have no securities. The risk is very high. So we could try
58:26 to do risk sharing, where we could provide some level of guarantee for lending to this sector.
58:33 [James Mwangi] The third one is
58:35 government incentives to the banks, to focus on this, such that whether it is the capital
58:42 waiting, lending to this sector, the treatment for reporting purposes by the
58:49 regulators. A policy shift would be absolutely necessary so that there is a central focus
58:56 so that all the efforts, all the hands are on the deck, of getting the economy to start recovery.
59:07 [Francine Lacqua] Thank you so much, sir.
59:09 We're almost out of time, but I'm going to ask you each,
59:10 actually in 30 seconds, because we have a lot of policy makers also watching. So could I ask
59:16 you in 30 seconds, your biggest concern for the next 12 months and what you think policymakers
59:23 or how they should address this? Mr. Carstens, maybe you can kick us off on that? In 30 seconds.
59:30 [Agustin Carstens] Pandemic number one,
59:34 and the low growth, number two.
59:38 [Francine Lacqua] Minister Indrawati?
59:40 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Well, the increasing inflation
59:45 and interest rate globally, number one. And a slow growth because of the non-ending pandemic.
59:53 [Francine Lacqua] Thank you so much. Carmen Reinhart?
59:59 [Carmen Reinhart] Hard to argue with the pandemic.
01:00:00 I think the low growth, inflation are not really separable.
01:00:07 And I think the part that perhaps is often forgotten, is that inflation is
01:00:14 very regressive. It's a regressive tax. So it goes to the income inequality issue as well.
01:00:19 [Francine Lacqua] Thank you so much. Mr. Mwangi?
01:00:22 [James Mwangi] Macroeconomic environment
01:00:26 is most appropriate for the private sector to be able to kick in. I think economic growth is what
01:00:34 will stimulate and help populations to move out of the situation. So that should be the policy focus.
01:00:41 [Francine Lacqua] All right. Well thank you
01:00:44 all for joining us. And of course, as you see from the poll, thank you for everyone
01:00:47 who also participated. There's no real correct answer. Not really.
01:00:50 As you heard today, there's no one size fits all approach and all these elements
01:00:55 must be tailored to each country's context and of course, build on country experience.
01:00:59 [Francine Lacqua] We hope you've enjoyed
01:01:00 the event today and please do keep sharing those comments online, using our hashtag #WDR2022.
01:01:07 Goodbye for now. And thank you again to all of our wonderful panelists joining us today.

Finance for an Equitable Recovery - World Development Report 2022

Follow the event on Twitter #WDR2022

The interconnected risks faced now by households, businesses, banks and governments could trigger a global financial chain reaction not seen in generations. The 2022 World Development Report (WDR) examines the financial and economic risks that have been created or exacerbated by the pandemic, and outlines policy measures governments should take now to avoid major financial upheaval.

This event will frame the public conversation on how governments should prioritize where to take policy action first and how to best allocate scarce resources to support the recovery.

It will also consider how to address the growing risks of over-indebtedness and increased financial fragilities. This event will center on these issues:

The importance of early detection of significant domestic and global financial risks.
The need for transparency of non-performing loans and proactive management of distressed assets.
The importance of proactively managing sovereign debt burdens to free up resources for the recovery and avoid the significant social and economic costs of sovereign debt distress.
The importance of ensuring continued access to credit, especially for low-income communities and small businesses, and the opportunities offered by financial technologies.
The need for countries to identify and tackle the most urgent sources of risks. In some countries, managing existing debt burdens is the major challenge, while in others it’s financial sector stability.

See the list of speakers ˅

Use the following timestamps to navigate different sections of the video.

00:00 Introducing the topic: Finance for an equitable recovery
01:40 Welcome and opening remarks
10:53 Report’s main findings and policy recommendations
16:01 Indonesia: Financial sector risks and the challenges of debt
22:40 Post-pandemic risks to the financial sector / Mitigations
30:00 How can rising government debt be managed to lessen the risk
36:20 Mitigating financial risks and encouraging inclusive access to finance
42:24 Dealing with high levels of private debt
48:19 Policy recommendations for Latin America and the Caribbean
52:11 Credit crunch
53:28 Leveraging digital financial technology vs risks of data privacy
56:28 Top priority for policymakers to support an equitable recovery
59:10 Closing remarks

Speakers

David R. Malpass

Former President, World Bank Group
@DavidMalpassWBG
Carmen M. Reinhart

Former Senior Vice President and World Bank Group Chief Economist, Development Economics
@carmenmreinhart
Sri Mulyani Indrawati

Minister of Finance, Indonesia
Agustin Carstens

General Manager, Bank for International Settlements
@BIS_org
Leora Klapper

Lead Economist, Development Economics, World Bank
@LeoraKlapper
James Mwangi

CEO of Equity Group Holdings
@KeEquityBank

Moderator

Francine Lacqua

Anchor, Bloomberg Television, London
@flacqua

Read the transcript

00:01 [Female voice] COVID-19 forced the world to deal with loss,
00:05 lost lives, but also lost jobs and lost incomes, especially in developing countries.
00:16 Lost jobs meant some businesses failed, bank balance sheets worsened, and credit tightened,
00:23 making new businesses and jobs harder to create.
00:27 To limit the losses, governments stepped in.
00:32 Their swift action, helped households and businesses get by and kept financial institutions running.
00:41 But it costs a lot of money and many governments borrowed heavily to fund it.
00:46 [Female voice] Now countries face new
00:50 long-term challenges like unsustainable levels of government debt, a lack of clarity about
00:56 the real financial health of households, businesses, banks, and even governments.
01:05 The 2022 World Development Report examines the interconnected economic and financial risks
01:11 that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic.
01:15 And the actions governments can take now to enable an equitable recovery.
01:22 Ignoring these risks could threaten any recovery, impacting the most vulnerable.
01:31 [READ THE FULL REPORT WORLDBANK.ORG/WDR2022 #WDR2022]
01:39 [Francine Lacqua] Welcome to everyone
01:42 in our virtual audience around the world. We're so glad you could join
01:45 us for this virtual event on how finance can support equitable recovery around the world.
01:49 I'm Francine Lacqua. Now earlier today,
01:51 the World Bank released its latest World Development Report Finance for an Equitable Recovery.
01:55 The world is still dealing with COVID-19. This pandemic really has triggered
02:00 the largest economic crisis in more than a century. Increased global poverty for the
02:04 first time in a generation and increased inequality across and within countries.
02:08 Now, governments stepped up
02:10 with generous economic support for households and business.
02:12 And while these helped mitigate the worst impacts of the crisis, they now need to be rolled back.
02:17 So today's event will discuss how this can be done without setting off a cascading financial crisis.
02:21 We are live streaming today in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic.
02:25 And you can follow the event on social media as well
02:27 using the hashtag #WDR2022. You can also post comments and questions at live.worldbank.org,
02:35 where our experts are standing by to respond in all four languages.
02:39 [Francine Lacqua] Now let's start off by hearing from
02:40 the World Bank Group President, David Malpass. Mr. Malpass, over to you.
02:47 [David Malpass] Thank you very much, Francine.
02:50 Thank you everyone for joining us today for the launch of this year's
02:55 World Development Report. It's called Finance for an Equitable Recovery. Let me begin
03:00 by thanking Carmen Reinhart and the WDR team for the timely report. And I also want to welcome
03:07 our special guest and friends, Sri Mulyani, Agustin Carstens and James Mwangi.
03:14 I'm very much looking forward to your discussion.
03:16 I'll say a few words now and then turn over to you.
03:20 [David Malpass] As we're all too familiar, the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdowns
03:24 have created the most significant economic crisis in almost a century.
03:30 It's challenging the effectiveness of civil and institutional structures around the world.
03:37 And it's adding to fragility and violence that's facing many parts of the world.
03:42 The result is a crisis for foreign policy and for development policy, as well as economics.
03:50 [David Malpass] In 2020 economic output contracted in 90% of countries
03:55 and the global economy shrank by 3%. Global poverty rates rose for the first time
04:01 in more than 20 years. Inequality has worsened,
04:05 and the poorer and the most disadvantaged were hardest hit
04:10 by the downturn and are being left behind in the recovery. The recovery itself is uneven and
04:17 faces many hurdles. Geopolitical tensions and fragility are major recovery risks, as we see
04:24 every day. New diseases and pathogens are a risk, as are existing ones and COVID variants.
04:32 [David Malpass] The World Bank Group works extensively on healthcare systems
04:36 around the world to bolster preparedness and provide a variety of surge financing tools.
04:43 Inflation will be hard to stop and hits the poor the hardest.
04:48 The two primary tools being considered seem unlikely to be enough. Gradual interest rate
04:55 hikes would still leave real interest rates, low or negative. The second tool, tapering
05:02 Central Bank asset purchases, still leaves huge distortions in the global financial system.
05:09 [David Malpass] Under the current post monetarist system, Central
05:14 Banks have two other tools. Financial regulatory policy, that's a topic of today's discussion
05:20 for developing countries, and also the duration of Central Bank assets and the duration of government
05:28 debt. The use of these two tools will be a key variable in reducing inflation more quickly.
05:36 [David Malpass] The current global support for bond issuers
05:40 continues to concentrate capital wealth and excess government spending in a very
05:46 narrow segment of advanced economies. It's the inequality that we observe every day.
05:53 This comes at the expense of small businesses, slow growth in median income and reversals in development.
06:01 The misallocation leaves weakness in productive investments,
06:06 in job training, and in the logistics needed to improve supply chains. That's not an argument
06:14 for faster interest rate hikes, which themselves cause damage, especially on new businesses and on
06:21 developing countries. Rather, it's an argument for governments and Central Banks to use more
06:27 of their tools at the same time. Rather than Central Banks buying back and owning large,
06:34 long duration debt, there needs to be more focus on lengthening the maturity and transparency
06:41 of all levels of government debt outstanding and slowing the growth in national debt.
06:47 [David Malpass] There needs to be the same
06:49 focus on debt transparency and sustainability in advanced economies that we have been advocating
06:55 strongly for developing countries. Similarly, it's vital that financial regulatory policy and
07:02 advanced economies recognize the importance of working capital and trade finance,
07:08 as we are doing in developing countries, even in today's report. Floating rates, small
07:14 business loans form the financial foundation of development, yet will be severely disadvantaged,
07:21 if Central Banks simply rely on interest rate hikes to try to get ahead of inflation.
07:27 [David Malpass] The new WDR focuses on developing countries
07:32 and on the interrelated economic risks
07:35 and spillovers between the balance sheets of households, businesses, financial institutions,
07:41 and governments. And also on the central role that finance needs to play in supporting a recovery.
07:50 The report discusses a variety of financial fragilities and risks.
07:54 [David Malpass] First, private debt is at a record high and
07:57 credit conditions are tightening. A growing share of businesses are expecting to fall into arrears.
08:03 A new wave of loan defaults would lead banks to tighten their lending standards.
08:09 This is procyclical, deepening the downturn, it worsens inequality,
08:14 typically hitting low income households and small businesses the hardest.
08:18 [David Malpass] And second, sovereign debt has also spiked
08:22 during the pandemic. It's reached new highs for some governments as revenues plummeted and related
08:29 COVID-19 expenditure soared. Surges in domestic government borrowing can crowd out lending to
08:37 the private sector and misallocate capital, as banks shift their lending to governments and
08:44 expose banks to concentrated sovereign risk. These are some of the topics in WDR today.
08:53 [David Malpass] So as monetary policy tightens
08:57 in the advanced economies, debt servicing and rollovers will become a greater burden.
09:02 It's critical that risks be uncovered and managed early. The alternative
09:09 protracted debt crises and restructurings, risks derailing growth and development for years.
09:16 [David Malpass] To work toward more sustainable debt,
09:20 a top priority is improved transparency of both public and private debt. This helps detect
09:27 financial risk and enables the proactive management of debt. We need effective
09:34 restructuring tools, both for government and private debt. Currently, there are no
09:39 predictable or orderly systems for sovereign debt restructuring and the implementation of the G20
09:46 Common Framework is stalled. For the medium and longer term, continued access to finance will be
09:53 critical to a robust recovery. Innovations in technology, including digital payments,
09:59 will be central, especially for low income households and medium and small enterprises.
10:05 [David Malpass] Let me conclude
10:06 by saying that I'm very pleased with the timely release of this report
10:11 and I commend it to you. And now, we have an excellent panel here today to discuss
10:17 these issues in more detail. So I'll pass the floor, to get them started. Thanks everyone.
10:24 [Francine Lacqua] Wonderful. Thank you so much.
10:25 Thank you so much for providing this global context.
10:28 Now, before we turn to the panel, let's also hear from Leora Klapper, Director of WDR 2022,
10:33 who will give us a snapshot of the report's main fine endings and policy recommendations. - Leora.
10:50 [Leora Klapper] Thank you, President Malpass.
10:53 This report is about identifying and resolving
10:55 financial risks that have been revealed or worsened during the pandemic, which could
10:59 threaten the broader economic recovery. This report comes at a point in the COVID-19 crisis,
11:05 when the economic programs that were implemented early in the pandemic to limit the immediate
11:09 financial impact of the crisis, now need to be scaled back. In many countries, that means
11:14 an end to support payments and debt moratoria for households and businesses, and to relax accounting
11:20 standards before households and businesses have recovered their pre-pandemic income levels.
11:25 [Leora Klapper] That creates a potential for unprecedented financial risks
11:29 for both governments and the private sector.
11:32 Risks that policy makers can't necessarily see in advance, through support measures,
11:37 like the late credit reporting that can mask the true economic health of borrowers.
11:41 [Leora Klapper] One of the central messages of the report,
11:44 is that when risks appear in one sector of the economy, they don't remain there. The balance
11:48 sheets of households, businesses, banks, microfinance institutions, and governments,
11:53 are all interconnected. To the extent, that a risk that arises in one of these sectors
11:57 can trigger a financial chain reaction that can spill over and destabilize the entire economy.
12:02 [Leora Klapper] For example, when families and
12:04 businesses face a loss of income, they may default on their debts. Lenders are then saddled with poor
12:10 loan quality and in response tend to reduce new lending. Almost everyone suffers when the economy
12:15 experiences a credit crunch, but the worst impacts hit low income households and small businesses who
12:21 rely on credit to drive spending and investments. And these circumstances and negative feedback loop
12:26 between financial sector performance and real economic activity can drive income and equality.
12:31 [Leora Klapper] And there's reason to be worried.
12:34 For example, about half of all businesses surveyed across selected low and middle income countries,
12:38 report that they expect to fall into arrears. Loan default could now sharply
12:43 increase. And we've seen in past crises that private debts can become public debts,
12:48 if governments are forced to bail out struggling financial institutions. In addition, escalating
12:53 levels of sovereign debt in the context of lower government revenue from taxes,
12:57 they weaken the government's ability to support households and firms and weaken bank balance
13:01 sheets if banks were holding local government debt. There's also the challenge of global risks
13:07 such as rising interest rates and inflation, which have the largest effect on the poorest people.
13:11 [Leora Klapper] This WDR focuses on solutions for four key areas of risk.
13:17 First, debt moratoria and freezes in credit reporting helped prevent a wave of loan
13:22 defaults during the pandemic, but they also reduced credit market transparency.
13:27 Lenders must now prioritize identifying and reducing non-performing loans. Delayed
13:32 action can threaten financial stability, reduce access to credit, discourage entrepreneurship.
13:37 [Leora Klapper] Second, delayed resolution of distressed debt
13:40 can waste time and the productive use of assets and human capital. Effective insolvency systems
13:46 facilitate conciliation and mediation, as well as simplified and quicker adequate work [inaudible]
13:52 for small and medium sized businesses. These can prevent capital from flowing
13:56 to unprofitable businesses and allowing individual debtors to escape the stigma of debt distress.
14:02 [Leora Klapper] The third risk is tighter access to credit.
14:05 Digital financial tools and lending models can help lenders better manage credit
14:10 and continue lending. Policymakers should put in place pro-innovation regulations
14:15 and upgrade financial infrastructure, ensuring consumer protection.
14:18 [Leora Klapper] And fourth, many governments had
14:21 to borrow to finance their pandemic spending, pushing sovereign debt to new highs. Now the
14:26 proactive management and reduction of sovereign debt is important to free up fiscal resources
14:32 to support the recovery and the transformation towards a greener world economy and prevent the
14:36 problems associated with sovereign debt distress, including prolonged recessions and high inflation.
14:42 [Leora Klapper] Although we highlight many
14:43 challenges to the recovery, we're optimistic about the tools for addressing these risks
14:48 and the interlinkages in the economy can work in a positive direction as well. A sustainable public
14:53 debt, a sound banking system and growing private sector can mutually reinforce a robust recovery.
15:00 We hope this report can help governments identify which policies should surface as high priorities
15:06 and how to best allocate scarce resources to support an equitable recovery. Thank you.
15:11 [Francine Lacqua] Thank you so much, Leora,
15:14 and I have to say it's one fantastic report for those of you who have not picked it up yet. Now
15:19 for those who've joined us late, we're discussing, of course, the just released World Development
15:23 Report, Finance for Equitable Recovery. Follow us on social media using #WDR2021.
15:29 [Francine Lacqua] Now let's turn to our panel.
15:30 And with us, we have Carmen Reinhart, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
15:34 of the World Bank Group, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Minister of Finance, of Indonesia,
15:40 Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements,
15:44 and James Mwangi, Group Chief Executive Officer, Equity Group Holdings, Kenya.
15:48 [Francine Lacqua] So thank you all for joining
15:50 us and thank you for the many questions that I'm already getting. Please continue
15:53 sending them through. Now let's pick up on some of the points raised by David Malpass
15:57 and Leora, and Minister Indrawati, turning to you first. As a Minister of Finance, of a large
16:03 middle income country, how have you managed financial sector risks and the challenges,
16:07 of course, of debt in your country to try and support a robust and equitable recovery?
16:11 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] First, thank you so much for this invitation
16:15 and congratulations for the WDR, which is very timely in terms of the topic.
16:21 The pandemic definitely have a very significant implication to many countries in the world,
16:28 including developing and emerging. The contraction of the economy, especially in 2020,
16:35 which is followed by the contraction on the revenue side. For Indonesia, for example,
16:39 the contraction of the economy is 2.07 in 2020, and then contraction on the revenue side,
16:47 which is the revenue, dropped by 16% while the spending increase by 12%. That's widened
16:54 the deficit in 2020, the first year of pandemic.
16:58 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Luckily for Indonesia, I think, the contraction of
17:02 the economy is relatively modest and how we respond to this contraction with the countercyclical,
17:09 both on the fiscal side and monetary side, as well as regulatory forbearance on a financial
17:15 sector regulation. Those have been put in three years extraordinary policy, which is allowed by
17:25 our emergency law. This actually tried to create a discipline so that we are not going to continue
17:33 in emergency and extraordinary situation, also paving the way for the exit policy.
17:39 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] So within this context,
17:41 now the recovery in 2021, driven by, of course, advanced economies, commodity prices, which also for
17:49 Indonesia creating also a very strong recovery on our fiscal. The revenue increased by 19%
17:56 while the spending are control around 7% growth. So the deficit has been dropped from 6.1% to 4.6%
18:07 only within one year. And for this year, we are going to expect the deficit will
18:13 be declined even further, below 4% of GDP. So that within three year we will be able to return
18:20 to what we call it, fiscal discipline rule, below 3% maximum deficit.
18:25 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] How we managed this situation? First, I think
18:28 there is a discipline in using the fiscal policy, really focusing on health, related to COVID,
18:37 social safety net, in order to reduce the inequality and especially protecting the society,
18:43 which is the most vulnerable one. And also focusing on small and medium enterprises
18:49 to recover the economy. The recovery of the economy, in terms of growth, has been accelerated,
18:55 especially on the last quarter of last year, in which we are able to achieve
19:01 3.7% of the whole year last year. But this is also contributed by quite even distribution of
19:11 recovery, whether this is on a consumption, investment and also very strong export.
19:17 On the supply side, production side, across the board, in this case from manufacturing,
19:23 trade, as well as services sector, which is also quite rebound as well as recover.
19:30 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] So this is a good news for
19:31 Indonesia. So within this context, in order for us to be able to manage the fiscal risk,
19:38 we did what we have to do in this case. While we are addressing the issue of pandemic, we also
19:46 deepen our reform. Tax reform is very critical for Indonesia. So we passed the legislation
19:52 to improve the tax collection, including increasing VAT as well as increasing the
19:57 tax bracket for the personal income tax and also increasing the tax free. This will be implemented
20:05 this year and next year and 2025. So this is also a very careful design, not to disrupt the recovery
20:14 process, while at the same time, consolidating the fiscal in a very measured, but also credible way.
20:21 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] The second one, we enjoy the
20:24 support from Central Bank. The Central Bank during this pandemic situation allow to buy
20:30 government bonds directly, but that can only be done related to the COVID as well as a social
20:37 safety net. So that's create a disciplines. We are not abusing as well as undermining
20:44 the independence of the Central Bank. Inflation in Indonesia is still very low. We're just below 2%,
20:51 and that's provide us with also a strong room for this maneuver on the monetary side.
20:57 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Regulatory forbearance on the financial sector
21:00 has been provided for three years until 2023. So basically for Indonesia, we are designing the exit
21:09 policy in a very measured and calculated way. Of course, by seeing the recovery process,
21:16 which is now undergoing, and we do hope of course that the pandemic is not getting worse because
21:22 the vaccination is already now achieved 70% of the population and we even provide a booster.
21:28 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] So this combination will
21:30 provide us more confidence on the growth recovery,
21:34 fiscal discipline and managing the debt. So when the interest rate globally increased
21:40 because of the increase in advanced country, we have a much better and stronger foundation.
21:46 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] One last thing is, of course,
21:48 on external balance, that is balance of payment, different from the taper tantrum, 2013,
21:55 Indonesia is now having a surplus in both trade, as well as current account balance.
22:00 So that's provide also a stronger position for us to embrace this increasing interest rate globally.
22:09 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] So that all the foundation
22:12 that we are trying to do while addressing the issue of pandemic but at the same time, also, we
22:19 create a room for the reform so that the foundation for the economy can be sanctioned.
22:24 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Thank you.
22:25 [Francine Lacqua] Fabulous. Thank you so much Minister.
22:27 And I have to correct myself, because I said WDR 2021, but of course it's WDR 2022 for the hashtag.
22:34 The last thing I want to do is, add a couple of months to a pandemic year. But thank you Minister
22:38 for those remarks. Now, Ms. Reinhart, from the position of a global multilateral bank and lender,
22:43 what are some of the post pandemic risks to the financial sector and how can governments
22:47 try to mitigate these risks as financial stimulus policies are starting to be unwound?
22:53 [Carmen Reinhart] So, first of all, I think it's important
23:00 to recognize, and this is one of the messages of the WDR, is that there is no one size fits all.
23:06 The risks differ considerably across countries and therefore the appropriate policy response
23:15 does as well. We just heard from Minister Mulyani, most countries at the moment are not as fortunate,
23:26 and have not had the benefit of recovery and low inflation, the combination that Indonesia has.
23:33 [Carmen Reinhart] So a big challenge is,
23:38 of course, for those countries where recovery has yet really to take hold, and that is the majority.
23:46 The majority of countries at the moment have per capita incomes that are below what they were
23:53 in 2019, before COVID. They have not fully recovered. And of course, per capita incomes
23:58 correlate with a lot of other economic and social indicators like poverty, health and so on.
24:05 [Carmen Reinhart] Also, most developing and emerging markets have
24:13 higher inflation, again, different from what we heard on Indonesia. So real wages
24:21 are also being eroded. How does this setting, in which
24:28 a recovery is very desirable and a sustainable, equitable recovery is very desirable, how does
24:34 it connect to the story in the WDR? Well, healthy recoveries need healthy financial institutions,
24:44 and they need also healthy governments. Now it is fairly well known at this stage, that
24:52 over the last few years, even before COVID, the state of health of many low income countries,
24:59 public finances is been strained. The share of countries in debt distress, or at high
25:06 risk of debt distress has risen steadily, and it's really in alarming territory. But
25:16 I think an area that has not received sufficient attention during the whole pandemic experience is
25:26 what these draconian declines in income, the uncertainty, the stop go,
25:34 we have closed business, we have open business, the duration, we're on our third year. What all
25:40 of this has done to private sector, household balance sheets, to corporate balance sheets.
25:48 [Carmen Reinhart] And of course, we already heard from the Minister,
25:52 the response, monetary and fiscal policy stimulus has gotten the headlines, but financial sector
26:02 policies have also been very important and really unprecedented during the pandemic. So
26:15 excellent timing in terms of counter cyclical,
26:18 allowing forbearance, so that corporates and households don't have to, in the midst
26:28 of an emergency really, don't have to repay their debts, but there are unintended consequences,
26:35 that those policies have also applied forbearance to accounting standards.
26:41 [Carmen Reinhart] So we've had about 20 years of
26:48 progress in many emerging and developing countries towards more transparency and balance sheets,
26:53 towards better and more standardized accounting of what is non-performing loans. And
27:03 the pandemic has really set that back.
27:07 So a concern that we reiterate again, and we heard from this, from both David, from Leora,
27:16 is to what extent are we going to see risks from the things we see or from the things we don't see?
27:29 [Carmen Reinhart] And let me say this, having
27:31 studied financial crisis for decades, it's often what we don't see that really triggers a crisis.
27:40 In the global financial crisis afterwards, the surprise was Greek debts were a lot bigger
27:48 than previously thought. In the Asian crisis of '97, it was thought that
27:56 Thailand Central Bank had much higher level reserves than it turned out to have.
28:01 And now the concern that we put forth is that, be very careful,
28:08 take stock quickly, do stress testing, get a handle on non-performing loans, because
28:15 I think the forbearance policies that have been so helpful in providing
28:20 support to households and firms during the pandemic, have had unintended consequences
28:26 of making much more opaque, the balance sheet of banks. And that could be a very negative surprise.
28:33 [Carmen Reinhart] I will conclude by saying
28:35 that if you look at some of the World Bank's Pulse surveys, which survey medium and small enterprises
28:45 mostly, and one of the questions those surveys ask is, are you in arrears now, or are you likely to
28:52 be in arrears six months from now? The answer to those surveys is, worrisomely, overwhelmingly yes.
29:05 The average response is, about 40% of the firms say that they're either in arrears or expect to
29:11 be. And a significant share of countries, the share saying yes to arrears, is much higher.
29:17 How does that connect to a picture where nothing has happened in non-performing loans?
29:22 [Carmen Reinhart] So be aware of the risks that you don't see,
29:26 I think is a cautionary message. And therefore the importance of stepping up surveillance,
29:33 to assess the damage on a timely basis and act accordingly, is really
29:40 a call for action on the part of the WDR. And I would conclude now by saying that again,
29:49 this is not a one size fits all. We try to work with countries depending on their specific needs.
29:56 [Francine Lacqua] All right. Thank you so much for that.
29:59 Mr. Carstens, from your global bird's eye perspective, on the role that Central Banks and financial
30:04 regulators play, how can rising government debt be managed, to lessen again the risk of debt crisis,
30:09 but also try and support some of these more equitable societies that we're trying to build.
30:14 [Agustin Carstens]
30:16 Thank you very much, Francine. Thank you to the World Bank,
30:19 to David and Carmen for having inviting me to this event and congratulations for the World
30:26 Development Report. Great to see also Sri Mulyani, recognize her for her work on the G20.
30:35 [Agustin Carstens] Let me start from a key principle here. I think
30:42 that the real issue we have been facing over the last two years is something that has to do with
30:48 a real shock. The real shock was a pandemic and it had a very important impact on economic activity.
30:55 Now, macro policies have been implemented to smooth the initial impact, to impede that this
31:01 real shock translate into depression and into a financial crisis. And I think so far so good.
31:09 We have managed to do that. The monetary fiscal and financial policies were always, from the out
31:16 start, predicated on the basis that they would be an immediate buffer to the magnitude of the shock.
31:24 [Agustin Carstens] At the end of the day,
31:25 the shock has had an impact on the real sector of the economy, on the business cycle,
31:31 on the allocation of resources. The solution will require a major relocation of resources
31:38 in the economy, and more than anything, to push very hard structural reforms that would increase
31:45 potential growth. I think a lot of the problems we're facing would be minimized if growth would be
31:53 enhanced. And as a matter of fact, in many emerging and developing countries,
31:57 the growth problem started already since the mid of last decade.
32:03 [Agustin Carstens] It's important that the macro policies can
32:07 transfer the baton to other type of policies that address more directly the nature of the shocks.
32:16 As the report very well establishes, some of the macro policies will need to enter
32:22 into another phase. Why? Because they have hit their limits.
32:27 Certainly monetary policy cannot go further than where it is.
32:32 [Agustin Carstens] It needs to start
32:34 reining in. And now it has to be, as Carmen says, one size doesn't fit all,
32:42 but certainly Central Banks need to be ahead of the curve, anchor inflation expectations and
32:48 make inflation reach a more normal level without generating a major slowdown in economic activity
33:00 and in the financial sector. A smooth landing is what Central Banks are looking
33:06 for. And I think with the instruments they have, they will be able to do that.
33:11 [Agustin Carstens] Now, in terms of your
33:12 specific question about government debt, I think we face today a real interesting circumstance,
33:22 and that piece, where even growth has been lower than expected or desired, it still is
33:29 higher than real interest rates and than nominal interest rates in many countries.
33:35 So that gives them time, gives time governments, to start bringing back order into their finances.
33:44 [Agustin Carstens] Obviously, there might be cases of major urgency,
33:51 but in most of the cases, there is time also to gradually start looking after a sustainable debt.
34:00 And here, let me bring back the issue of growth. The key equation here, or calculus, or indicator,
34:10 that Carmen knows extremely well, is a difference between interest rates and growth rates.
34:16 If we work more on work growth rates through time, I think that we can diffuse many of the
34:23 problems in many countries. And now this also calls for the allocation of government resources
34:34 and the policies, that on the fiscal side can be implemented. I think that now we need to
34:39 move more into more focused and targeted type of policies that can enhance the resiliency of firms.
34:48 [Agustin Carstens] Not of all of them, because we know that they have
34:51 been sectoral shifts, shifts in demand and so on. And some firms, regretfully, will not be viable.
34:58 We need to be able to support employment, so that employment supports consumption. And this
35:06 continues with the access to financial services to a lot of the population.
35:10 [Agustin Carstens] So there are many different aspects where,
35:14 if the policies are fine tuned are well directed, I think that we can manage to
35:22 bring this into a route of least pain as possible. For me, the key is that not only Central Banks,
35:33 Finance ministries, and so on, need to use all of their instruments, but we need to use
35:40 all the instruments that are available in the economic policy front, and others too. I think
35:46 that we need to focus is, towards growth, towards making reallocation of resources more efficient.
35:52 [Agustin Carstens] So, as I said at the outset,
35:57 the limits of the macro policies will not hurt the economic recovery and the baton can be taken
36:05 over by a real sector policy that for sure, the World Bank always do a great job in this field.
36:15 [Francine Lacqua] Great. Thank you so much, Mr. Carstens. Now,
36:19 Mr. Mwangi, from the private sector perspective, what kinds of government policy could help
36:23 mitigate financial risks that they're also facing? And also encourage inclusive access to finance?
36:30 [James Mwangi] Thank you very much. I think the situation
36:34 where we are, particularly developing countries, given that this is more of an economic shock,
36:42 the financial sector will only be successful if it works hand in hand with governments
36:48 that allows policy change. Unfortunately, most of the governments of developing countries
36:55 have no headroom to be able to put stimulus and significant impact. And they have not
37:02 had big impact and have really focused on the social aspect.
37:07 [James Mwangi] So for the governmental movement, the best is to
37:12 really create elaborate partnerships and try and harmonize, particularly the public private sector
37:20 collaboration, which can really mobilize citizens to play a more larger role.
37:28 I think today, the bigger private sector banks like Equity Bank,
37:32 I think needs to be incentivized by government so that they play more of a developmental
37:38 role where they don't really focus on the financial sector, but seeks partnerships,
37:44 whether it's with the development banks or whether it is with the philanthropic world.
37:52 [James Mwangi] So that the approach they take
37:54 is not the traditional financing and commercial approach, but it's a developmental approach
38:00 that builds the financial capabilities, provide financial tools. But more importantly, to ensure
38:09 the bulk of the population is not left behind. As social interventions,
38:16 particularly capacity building, so that people are able to bounce [inaudible 00:38:22]
38:24 adversely affected. And then the [inaudible 00:38:27] have a mix such that it's not the
38:29 short term financing of banks, but it's a mix of long term development financing,
38:36 together with the commercial bank financing, to allow recovery, and particularly, to also allow
38:44 development of local and regional supply chains to replace the broken global supply chains.
38:50 [James Mwangi] Another aspect is policy change. This then
38:55 means that, if the private sector is to [inaudible 00:38:58] a developmental approach, there must be
39:01 policy change that allows that, and particularly links the micro and macro policies. So that the
39:13 lead economy can then be able to play an active role. Whether these will then look at incentives,
39:22 whether these will work in collaborations and partnerships, or in a case to case basis,
39:29 or it is more of sectoral approach, I think, it will depend from one country to the other.
39:37 [James Mwangi] The last one is the [inaudible 00:39:39] for
39:40 governments to think really how to deal with crowding out in the private sector.
39:47 We've realized the banks have responded by really looking at the risk perspective. And
39:54 part of [inaudible 00:39:55] looking at the risk perspective of lending because of the high NPLs
40:01 has been more, take the sovereign risk. And as more of the government tries to
40:09 fill in and replace the lost income in terms of tax revenues through debt correction,
40:18 they should strike a balance such that they don't crowd out completely private sector. That
40:24 then is bringing a very significant stimulus [inaudible 00:40:28] out to the lead economy.
40:30 [James Mwangi] So that is how
40:31 I see where the government can come in and take a more, like
40:37 in East Africa, maybe a more regional approach other than a national approach, may help. So that
40:45 cross border trade and investment then plays a bigger role in bringing back the recovery
40:54 and stimulating recovery, than may be government. So the issue of re looking at markets and
41:01 maybe sacrificing a bit of sovereignty to regional policies that allow cross border trade,
41:10 that allow larger markets, that allow, maybe ease of trade, maybe a way to approach this recovery.
41:19 [Francine Lacqua] Mr. Mwangi, thank so much.
41:22 So let's, first of all, welcome the audience who have tuned in right now. We're discussing
41:28 the just released World Development Report on Finance for Equitable Recovery. Now, we're also
41:33 asking everyone participating, listening in, or watching us, to take a poll. In an ideal world,
41:39 and this is a complicated question, but in an ideal world, policymakers should be able
41:43 to address all these challenges, but given that they can't, they have to prioritize.
41:47 [Francine Lacqua] So what do you think could be
41:49 the priority to support an equitable recovery, the first priority. So you can vote, its A, B,
41:54 C or D. 'A', identify and address non-performing loans and financial sector stability, 'B' resolve
42:02 distress loans of households and businesses. If you answer 'C', and I think you can just actually
42:07 type it on the website. 'C' is ensure access to credit, especially for low income households
42:13 and small businesses, and 'D' finally, tackle record high sovereign debts.
42:17 [Francine Lacqua] We will reveal the answers at the end,
42:20 in about 15 minutes from now, but Minister Indrawati, maybe one of the things that we
42:27 need to look at, and I'll ask all of you the same question in about one or two minutes,
42:31 really to try and get the conversation going is, what can policy makers,
42:35 at this point, at this juncture in time, and we've seen actually some of the difficulties
42:39 in addressing all of these together. But what can policy makers do with high levels of private
42:44 debt whilst avoiding this credit crunch or sustained lending by banks to zombie firms?
42:50 There's not a magic answer, but what signs should they be looking out for?
42:55 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] I think if the recovery of the economy
43:00 can be accelerated, that will provide a room for the bank to address the non-performing loans.
43:07 Because as I said earlier, even in Indonesia, we provide the regulatory forbearance for
43:14 the financial sector, especially bank, for three years until 2023. And that mean the NPL,
43:21 although currently at the 3% level, but they are actually have to provide the additional capital
43:31 reserve in order to anticipate the realized non-performing loan by the end of this policy.
43:39 And that's why, when the recovery process is accelerated, the bank definitely will see that
43:46 the corporation, the corporate debt, which is under restructuring, can become current again,
43:52 and they can serve their debt again. That is a good solution. So definitely the recovery economy
44:00 is necessary condition for this banking sector, and the exposure to the non-performing loan
44:08 can be actually decreased or can be addressed.
44:12 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] The second one is, of course,
44:14 the stability of the economy in the form of the interest rate. As much as possible,
44:18 if you can avoid this disruption of the recovery, as we can see that the inflation coming, whether
44:25 this is coming from the supply side disruption, labor shortage in the advanced country.
44:31 For Indonesia, we don't have labor shortage, in this case. Even when our unemployment rate
44:38 has actually increased from 5.2 to 7% because of the COVID in 2020, and our
44:46 recovery process also accompanied by declining unemployment, but it's still at the 6.4 from 9%.
44:54 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] And of course, in Indonesia,
44:56 unlike in a more advanced country, we have an informal sector.
44:59 So labor supply is actually not a problem. Supply disruption, maybe also not really a problem.
45:06 We do have the pressure from the inflation eventually coming from the commodity price,
45:13 like the [inaudible 00:45:15] coal, oil, which is going to be also creating a pressure.
45:19 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] The inflation on the producer side is actually
45:24 much higher, but inflation at the consumer side, still the headline on the consumer inflation,
45:30 is still very low. Some of it is because of our administered price. That is the government
45:36 absorbed this increasing price through subsidy, but that's only one part of the issue. But low
45:44 inflation, high growth, definitely will have a lot of restructuring of the loan to become current.
45:51 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] The second one, this also create
45:54 a better chance for the banking sector, to restore their intermediary function.
46:00 To be honest, during this pandemic in 2020, the credit crunch is actually quite severe.
46:08 We are contracted by around 5%. So if you can combine between, on the supply side mobility has
46:15 been stopped and then the credit is also stopped or declined sharply, NPL is going to be increased.
46:22 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Bank will take care of their own balance
46:25 sheet first. And that is exactly also what the government really want because we don't want to
46:31 face the pandemic, that is a health crisis, then can create social crisis when the people become
46:38 unemployed and becoming poor. Then combined with the banking crisis. So we want to make
46:45 sure that the bank and financial sector will be actually relatively stable. They have to
46:51 do additional capital adequacy ratio and at now 25%. So I think it's relatively robust.
46:58 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] And we also see that the non-performing
47:02 loan is not declined. And I think the [inaudible 00:47:05] restructure and it becoming current
47:07 again. So it's good, the right indication for restoring to the normal level again.
47:15 The problem for Indonesia, maybe in this case, Carmen and Agustin, during this special situation,
47:24 we are supported by Central Bank who become a standby buyer of the government financing.
47:30 At the same time, the bank doesn't want to lend commercially because it's too risky. So they
47:38 prefer to buy government bonds. So the government deficit,
47:43 fiscal deficit has been actually supported directly by Central Bank, and the fact that
47:50 banking sector is not lending. Now, if we are going to normalize, Central Bank stop financing
47:58 and bank will start lending to the commercial, then fiscal need to reduce the deficit. So this
48:05 is going to be like the combination of the macro level, which is linked to the recovery process.
48:10 [Francine Lacqua] Minister. Thank you so much. Carmen
48:13 Reinhart, maybe just a question quickly, on zombie companies, where do you worry about them the most?
48:18 And then I have a question also for you, from an audience member, which is basically, what measures
48:23 should Latin American countries take now so as not to exacerbate some of the acute problems
48:28 that they had before the pandemic, and this person mentions, for example,
48:33 the lack of basic services, but also some of the corruption that we could see out there.
48:39 [Carmen Reinhart] Well, to be very direct, we don't address,
48:50 by no means, the list of problems either created or exacerbated by COVID. It's a very long list.
48:59 We are focused in the WDR on these aspects of finance that we think are very critical. And we
49:07 just heard the minister and they're very critical to recovery. In relation to the prior question, as
49:19 the minister said, recovery is essential. A rising tide lifts all boats, I believe it's the same.
49:29 [Carmen Reinhart] So that's very critical,
49:31 but I think what to do right now, and this is also very applicable to Latin America,
49:38 including Central America, where some of the business survey reports that I mentioned, are also
49:47 somewhat troubling in their disconnect with non-performing loans, is I think, important
49:54 stock taking. And it's complacency. We don't really want to hear about non-performing loans.
50:06 [Carmen Reinhart] Banks historically,
50:08 historically time and time again, have engaged in evergreening, which goes directly to your
50:15 question. You don't recognize the loss. You don't take the hit right now in your balance sheet. You
50:21 continue to lend, but if you continue to lend to a firm that has really ceased to be productive,
50:30 it is a diversion of resources. And we are dealing with economies that are scarce in resources.
50:38 And so the prospect of having zombie lending, zombie firms,
50:44 is very detrimental to the vibrant role that banks could play in stimulating the private sector.
50:56 [Carmen Reinhart] And this goes to comments also, that James and
51:02 the Minister have made, on also the crowding out problem. So a credit crunch could ensue because
51:16 banks are engaged in lending to zombie firms. A credit crunch could ensue because
51:24 they are averse, and this is what the Minister was saying, averse to lending to the private sector.
51:31 This is commonplace during periods of uncertainty. They prefer to lend to the government. And then if
51:39 governments are aggressive in domestic borrowing, credit crunch can occur because of crowding out.
51:48 [Carmen Reinhart] So, we want to avoid credit crunches, and
51:54 they're important steps on debt restructuring and so on, that governments,
51:59 regulators, I want to stress the role of regulators. We've talked about Central Banks
52:04 and fiscal authorities, but regulators have a big role here. And as do courts.
52:08 [Francine Lacqua] [inaudible 00:52:10] Reinhart,
52:10 can I just pin you down? When you talk about a credit crunch,
52:13 what kind of probability at this point are we talking about?
52:16 [Carmen Reinhart] Look, again, I'm not dodging your question.
52:20 It's not a one size fits all. In some countries, we have been in a credit crunch already.
52:32 In part that reflects the fact that, as I alluded to in my earlier remarks for the majority of
52:38 developing countries, the majority, they have not yet recovered their pre COVID level of income. So
52:48 for many, the credit crunch is already underway, and we've seen the pattern that we heard from in
52:54 Indonesia, where more lending is going to the government from the banks, either because the
52:59 banks are risk averse, the government just needs to borrow more or a combination of the two.
53:06 But this is not hypothetical, is the point that I'm making. And in many cases,
53:15 extending into 2022 and beyond, really jeopardizes the prospect for private sector recovery.
53:24 [Francine Lacqua] Great. Thank you so much.
53:27 Agustin Carstens, I don't know whether you wanted to talk about
53:31 what you think is a possible probability at this juncture in time, of something to go severely
53:35 wrong, more wrong than we've seen in the last couple of years. But also how can policy makers
53:39 encourage at the same time, banks and fintechs to leverage some of the digital financial
53:45 technology, to provide financial services whilst managing the other risks?
53:49 [Agustin Carstens] Well, picking up on what Carmen said
53:55 in terms of credit crunch and so and so forth, I think something that we should realize is that
54:03 this period of difficulty in the world economy is not a result of a financial crisis.
54:12 If we compare this to 2008, '09, '10, then it was a real financial crisis.
54:19 The epicenter of the problem was in the financial sector. Here,
54:23 it's not the case. Here, again, let me insist, this is a real sector type of crisis.
54:29 [Agustin Carstens] So in this case,
54:31 I think that the financial sector can really be part of the solution. And I think so far
54:36 it has been part of the solution. By and large, we don't see any banking crisis.
54:42 In most countries, we don't see any banking crisis looming. I think that the Basel core
54:50 principles that were developed after the previous financial crisis, have done a very good job.
54:55 [Agustin Carstens] I think that commercial banks
54:57 have a higher loss absorbing capacity. I think so far, they have been engaging in lending and yes,
55:05 it probably hasn't been as fast as we would like to see, because as many of the speakers in this
55:11 event has said, there is a lot of uncertainty out there. There is a lot of risk out there.
55:16 And I think one of the roles, where I think there is still a scope for joint action
55:24 between the public and the private sector, is precisely how can this uncertainty and how
55:30 can these risks be shared between public and private sectors in an efficient way?
55:35 [Agustin Carstens] I think many lending can be
55:38 done through public development banks. I think international financial institutions can also
55:45 bring to the table creative financing programs, where risks can be allocated in a more efficient
55:55 way and this better location of risks and better management of uncertainty can unleash
56:02 more private sector lending. The capacity is there. We just need to find out how can we
56:09 unleash it. And this has a lot to do with risks. And of course, to deal with the pandemic in the
56:15 first place. And as I have been insisted, getting more growth going, would also help tremendously.
56:21 [Francine Lacqua] It certainly would.
56:23 I actually have the results of the poll, which I'll tell you in a second and then go to Mr. Mwangi.
56:27 [Francine Lacqua] So the poll results, about 60% of people
56:30 who took the poll, across all four languages, say the most important priority is 'C',
56:37 which is to ensure access to credit for low income households and small businesses.
56:41 [Francine Lacqua] So Mr. Mwangi, it's easier said than done.
56:45 Of course we don't like to do that, but what are the challenges?
56:48 If this is a priority and I don't know, out of the four questions, if it is your
56:51 priority, or it should be, of course, all of our priority, but how'd you get this done?
56:57 [James Mwangi] Truly. I agree that the priority should be availing access to credit,
57:05 particularly for small businesses. Essentially, small businesses provide massive employment,
57:10 particularly in the developing economies.
57:12 They constitute the informal sector, which in some countries, like in East Africa,
57:17 they're just above 90% of the entire economy. So it is really the basis of survival for households.
57:24 [James Mwangi] The second thing is,
57:26 the biggest employer in emerging markets, the jobs are in the informal sector. So the best we can do
57:33 for ourselves is to fast track the recovery of that sector so that we provide relief to
57:42 the population and most of them are in the lead economy. So then the economy would start firing.
57:49 [James Mwangi] How would we do this? I think it has
57:53 been said by my colleagues, I think development banks and international financial institutions can
57:58 partner with the commercial banks, particularly, to provide a diversified portfolio of credit.
58:05 [James Mwangi] So that feeds in each category. I think
58:09 philanthropic organizations, foundations, and development institutions can provide
58:15 guarantees because most of these businesses had closed. So they're
58:20 bouncing back. They have no securities. The risk is very high. So we could try
58:26 to do risk sharing, where we could provide some level of guarantee for lending to this sector.
58:33 [James Mwangi] The third one is
58:35 government incentives to the banks, to focus on this, such that whether it is the capital
58:42 waiting, lending to this sector, the treatment for reporting purposes by the
58:49 regulators. A policy shift would be absolutely necessary so that there is a central focus
58:56 so that all the efforts, all the hands are on the deck, of getting the economy to start recovery.
59:07 [Francine Lacqua] Thank you so much, sir.
59:09 We're almost out of time, but I'm going to ask you each,
59:10 actually in 30 seconds, because we have a lot of policy makers also watching. So could I ask
59:16 you in 30 seconds, your biggest concern for the next 12 months and what you think policymakers
59:23 or how they should address this? Mr. Carstens, maybe you can kick us off on that? In 30 seconds.
59:30 [Agustin Carstens] Pandemic number one,
59:34 and the low growth, number two.
59:38 [Francine Lacqua] Minister Indrawati?
59:40 [Sri Mulyani Indrawati] Well, the increasing inflation
59:45 and interest rate globally, number one. And a slow growth because of the non-ending pandemic.
59:53 [Francine Lacqua] Thank you so much. Carmen Reinhart?
59:59 [Carmen Reinhart] Hard to argue with the pandemic.
01:00:00 I think the low growth, inflation are not really separable.
01:00:07 And I think the part that perhaps is often forgotten, is that inflation is
01:00:14 very regressive. It's a regressive tax. So it goes to the income inequality issue as well.
01:00:19 [Francine Lacqua] Thank you so much. Mr. Mwangi?
01:00:22 [James Mwangi] Macroeconomic environment
01:00:26 is most appropriate for the private sector to be able to kick in. I think economic growth is what
01:00:34 will stimulate and help populations to move out of the situation. So that should be the policy focus.
01:00:41 [Francine Lacqua] All right. Well thank you
01:00:44 all for joining us. And of course, as you see from the poll, thank you for everyone
01:00:47 who also participated. There's no real correct answer. Not really.
01:00:50 As you heard today, there's no one size fits all approach and all these elements
01:00:55 must be tailored to each country's context and of course, build on country experience.
01:00:59 [Francine Lacqua] We hope you've enjoyed
01:01:00 the event today and please do keep sharing those comments online, using our hashtag #WDR2022.
01:01:07 Goodbye for now. And thank you again to all of our wonderful panelists joining us today.

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