Tackling the COVID-19 Pandemic of Inequality to Build a Green, Inclusive, & Resilient Recovery | World Bank Live

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(Read the event transcript in English, Arabic, Chinese, French, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish)

'We have to help countries improve their readiness for future pandemics.'

World Bank Group President David Malpass called on the world to move urgently toward opportunities and solutions that achieve a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in a speech today that advances the World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings.

“Our collective responses to poverty, climate change, and inequality will be the defining choices of our age.”

Mr. Malpass delivered the speech virtually at the London School of Economics; it was followed by a discussion with students, moderated by Baroness Minouche Shafik, Director of the London School of Economics.

See the list of Speakers

As we work toward a #ResilientRecovery, our collective responses to poverty, climate change, & inequality will be the defining choices of our age.

My thanks to Baroness Shafik & @LSEnews for their hospitality.#LSECOVID19

Read my full remarks here: https://t.co/K4vywMfLq2 pic.twitter.com/OBMutc93di

— David Malpass (@DavidMalpassWBG) March 29, 2021

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Read the transcript

00:00 —Welcome, everyone.
00:02 My name is Minouche Shafik and I'm the director
00:04 of the London School of Economics and political science.
00:07 And we're delighted to have you joining us for this online event.
00:11 I'm especially pleased to welcome president David Malpass to the LSE today.
00:16 David Malpass is the 13th president of the World Bank Group.
00:20 And he's been in that role since April, 2019.
00:24 And I have to confess it's an organization
00:26 that I spent 15 happy years of my career in.
00:29 President Malpass previously served as the Under Secretary of the Treasury for
00:33 International Affairs for the United States, where he represented the US
00:38 at G7 and G20 meetings, as well as on the financial stability board,
00:42 the OECD and the overseas private investment corporation.
00:46 For today's event,
00:48 he will be discussing what is needed to build a green,
00:52 inclusive and resilient recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
00:57 The current crisis has worsened global inequality and disproportionately
01:02 impacted those who are poorest and most vulnerable across the world,
01:06 particularly women and children. So in our conversation today,
01:11 President Malpass and I will discuss how we can accelerate a global recovery in
01:15 a way that tackles growing inequalities and improves livelihoods.
01:20 Some logistics to start for those who are Twitter users
01:23 the hashtag for today's event is #LSECOVID19.
01:28 And this event will be recorded and made available as a podcast afterward,
01:33 as usual, there'll be a chance for you to ask questions to President Malpass.
01:37 And so to submit those questions,
01:39 please send them to the Q&A feature at the bottom of your screen.
01:43 And questions will be submitted to me, and I will then convey them.
01:47 Please let us know your name and affiliation.
01:50 And we're especially keen to hear from students and alumni across the world.
01:54 Also tell us where you are.
01:56 I'm particularly delighted that two of our own LSE students will be posing questions
02:00 to President Malpass live before opening it up to the wider audience.
02:06 So with that, I'm delighted to welcome president Malpass.
02:09 And I'll ask him to deliver some opening remarks to get us started.Over to you.
02:20 —Thank you very much, Baroness Shafik,
02:24 it's a pleasure to be here with you,
02:26 a distinguished alumna of the World Bank Group,
02:29 and other distinguished World Bank alumni including Lord Stern,
02:32 our former Chief Economist.
02:34 And thanks to the LSE for hosting me virtually.
02:39 Today, I will set the stage ahead of the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings.
02:44 This provides an opportunity to engage partners
02:50 on urgent matters, including work on climate change, debt,
02:54 and inequality, working toward a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery.
02:59 Let me begin by acknowledging the importance of the United Kingdom within the World Bank Group.
03:05 The UK is the largest contributor to IDA.
03:09 It is the IBRD’s fifth-largest shareholder,
03:12 and I enjoy strong relationships with Prime Minister Johnson,
03:16 Secretary of State Raab, Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak,
03:20 Bank of England Governor Bailey, President of COP26 Alok Sharma,
03:25 and members of Parliament, civil society, the private sector, academia, and media.
03:30 Our office in London works to promote consensus
03:34 around the international development agenda
03:37 and build a platform for collaboration on shared priorities.
03:42 More than a year into the COVID-19 pandemic.
03:46 The scale of the tragedy is unprecedented
03:49 127 million infections, 2.8 million deaths,
03:54 more than 100 million people pushed into extreme poverty.
03:58 It's the equivalent of 250 million jobs lost,
04:01 and a quarter of a billion people driven into acute hunger.
04:06 Besides its immediate harm COVID-19 is leaving lasting "scars:"
04:11 closed schools and physical stunting of children;
04:15 collapsed businesses and lost jobs;
04:18 the depletion of saving and assets; and debt overhangs
04:23 that will depress investment and squeeze out urgent social spending.
04:27 COVID-19 descended on the poor like wildfire.
04:31 It was layered on several slow burning crises,
04:36 rising conflict and violence, refugee camps,
04:40 stagnant median incomes, reckless lending
04:44 and poorly chosen debt contracts,
04:46 and damage caused by climate change.
04:49 Because these crises struck at different speeds,
04:53 the natural tendency everywhere was to tackle them separately
04:57 one-at-a-time, without sufficient attention to cross-connections
05:02 that might have enabled a more effective response.
05:05 The world is developing a better line of sight forward.
05:09 Our collective responses to poverty,
05:11 Our collective responses to poverty, climate change, and inequality
05:14 will be the defining choices of our age.
05:17 It is time to move urgently toward opportunities and solutions
05:22 that achieve sustainable and broad-based economic growth without harming climate,
05:27 degrading the environment, or leaving hundreds of millions of families in poverty.
05:33 We’re calling our approach to these interlinked crises GRID
05:38 —Green, Resilient, Inclusive Development.
05:41 In previous addresses,
05:43 I’ve detailed some of the World Bank Group’s actions in helping countries
05:47 respond to the COVID-19 pandemic,
05:50 tackle what I’ve called the “pandemic of inequality,”
05:53 and work toward recovery.
05:55 These include new COVID-related emergency health programs
06:00 in 112 countries,
06:03 vaccination operations that we expect will reach $4 billion of commitments
06:08 available in 50 countries by mid-year,
06:11 and a quick doubling of our trade and working capital finance
06:16 to help fill the banking vacuum that hit private sectors.
06:25 Despite COVID-related work-from-home restrictions,
06:28 the World Bank had record 65% growth in program delivery in 2020
06:34 —an even bigger surge than the height of the global financial crisis response in 2009—
06:42 and this elevated level of delivery is continuing in 2021.
06:47 It’s important that every commitment has the greatest possible development impact
06:51 impact and robust operational policies and review processes.
06:57 And we’re building a culture of contestability,
07:00 where we encourage our highly diverse, multi-disciplinary and globally experienced staff
07:07 to challenge each other’s perspectives and help to enhance the quality of operations,
07:13 throughout both preparation and implementation.
07:19 External input is vital too,
07:21 including from development professionals and schools such as yours.
07:26 Each of our Country Partnership Frameworks is developed with citizen participation.
07:31 We’re working to help countries build “Country Platforms” to engage
07:36 with a wider groups of development actors
07:38 as they develop the programs we support.
07:41 External experts frequently participate in the development of our projects and programs.
07:47 And in the past year,
07:48 we’ve taken significant steps to enhance the accountability mechanisms
07:53 for both the World Bank, and for IFC and MIGA.
08:01 I encourage each of you to read World Bank country programs,
08:06 project documents,
08:07 and our knowledge sharing to think about what works and
08:12 possibly what doesn't.
08:14 Good development outcomes in countries are
08:16 at the heart of the Bank’s mission and activities.
08:21 The challenge extends to every academic discipline, and we need faster progress across the board
08:28 —in water, nutrition, education, health, infrastructure, electricity access, governance,
08:37 regulation, taxation, connectivity, inclusion, tolerance, and a host of other critical issues.
08:47 I'm going to focus on three of the most pressing challenges today,
08:52 —climate, debt, and inequality.
08:55 I know climate is on all our minds and perhaps particularly in the UK as
09:00 the host of COP26 in Glasgow, this November.
09:05 The World Bank is actively supporting developing countries to achieve
09:08 significant progress on the climate agenda,
09:11 through the lens that investing in climate offers development opportunities.
09:16 The World Bank Group is the biggest provider of climate finance to the developing world.
09:22 My first year as president saw the biggest climate investments in our history,
09:27 and investments in my second year are on track to be bigger still.
09:31 We've set an ambitious new target of 35% for climate investments on average,
09:36 over the next five years
09:38 —meaning that 35% of the financing within our investments as a whole
09:43 is supporting developing country climate benefits.
09:47 To give you a sense of the scale of the ambition,
09:49 over the previous 5 years the World Bank Group
09:52 climate finance was 26% of a significantly smaller amount of lending.
09:59 Our climate financing will be used toward “mitigation” efforts,
10:04 to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions and their impacts;
10:08 and for “adaptation” efforts, to help countries prepare for negative climate effects.
10:14 We’ve set a second important target in that regard.
10:17 Of our total climate finance over the next five years,
10:20 at least 50% on average will be for adaptation.
10:24 I'd expect the share of adaptation to be particularly large in the IDA countries,
10:30 which currently account for just 4% of global emissions,
10:34 even as many of them suffer life-threatening climate change impacts.
10:40 In addition to these high targets for financing,
10:43 we are working to achieve the most impact in terms of results
10:48 —actual improvements in the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions
10:52 and lives and livelihoods saved through adaptation.
10:56 To help this effort,
10:58 we’re moving to integrate climate into all our country diagnostics and country strategies.
11:04 Over the next year,
11:05 we plan to complete up to 25 Country Climate and Development Reports.
11:11 We'll aim to include in this first wave,
11:14 those developing countries with the largest carbon emissions and those with
11:19 the greatest climate vulnerabilities,
11:22 We’re also working to improve results-measurement
11:25 to help make sure that our financing and strategies deliver impact.
11:30 A key part of our climate action is to support countries with their Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs,
11:37 and long-term low carbon development plans.
11:42 Countries have widely varying approaches,
11:46 and we want to help them integrate climate and development as effectively as possible,
11:50 including through fiscal policy and plans for sustainable growth.
11:55 For some countries,
11:56 carbon taxation will be an effective way to help guide capital and
12:01 respond to the distributed impact of the response to climate change.
12:05 Every year, G20 countries alone put tens of billions of dollars
12:10 into subsidizing high carbon industries.
12:14 If these billions could instead be used to fund a “just transition,”
12:20 just think how much faster we could progress toward a low-carbon, net-zero world.
12:26 Green growth will involve several key systemic transformations
12:31 —for example, in energy, food systems, manufacturing, transportation
12:36 and urban infrastructure.
12:38 Each transfer transformation is complicated,
12:42 but these sectors account for 90% of GHG emissions,
12:46 so they are the key to GHG reduction.
12:50 One of the most challenging and important transformations is for countries to achieve
12:55 a just transition from coal to affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy.
13:03 The Bank can help countries with this, but it is complicated for a number of reasons including:
13:09 economic dependence on coal, worker displacement as the transition occurs,
13:16 the cost of new infrastructure and writing off many large, recent investments,
13:23 and the importance of identifying ways to provide rapid growth
13:27 in affordable, reliable and year-round base load to replace coal
13:32 in the national grids of developing countries facing energy poverty.
13:37 The world needs to make further technological breakthroughs
13:41 before we can achieve a zero-carbon world.
13:46 Climate presents several big challenges and opportunities
13:50 for economics, finance, and development.
13:52 I'd like to mention several and encourage public discussion.
13:56 First, how does the world help poorer countries make large investments in global public goods
14:03 such as their reduction in coal usage?
14:07 Should the costs be shared worldwide? If so, how?
14:11 Second, how can national incentives be aligned and financed
14:15 to help people transition to greener fuels and jobs,
14:19 for example using carbon and gasoline taxes?
14:23 Third, can an effective carbon credit market be created
14:28 that allows greenhouse gas emissions for some while paying for reductions elsewhere
14:36 —not just certificates of notional carbon reduction
14:39 but actual measurable and sustainable decarbonization?
14:44 Fourth, how can we properly measure the full life-cycle costs and benefits
14:49 of various climate policy choices?
14:52 Fifth, how can people in poorer countries best make the necessary but expensive adaptations to climate change
14:58 and how can they best prepare for future pandemics and natural disasters
15:04 – knowing that preparation is much better than after-the-fact disaster relief?
15:10 And lastly, how can the necessary progress on global public goods be best integrated with development
15:18 and the necessary reductions in poverty and increases in shared prosperity?
15:25 These are key questions and challenges at the core of combatting climate change.
15:30 The Bank is addressing these challenges in our analytical work in low- and middle-income countries,
15:36 and in our rapidly expanding climate operations.
15:42 I also want to comment on the debt situation facing poorer countries.
15:46 While some progress on debt is underway, including a recent breakthrough in Sudan,
15:51 many of the poorer countries are coping with record debt burdens.
15:56 Even before the pandemic, the World Bank report on Global Waves of Debt
16:01 —which studied the causes and consequences of the four waves of debt accumulation that the global economy has experienced over the past fifty years—
16:06 that the global economy has experienced over the past fifty years—
16:10 found that half of all low-income countries
16:14 were already in debt distress or at a high risk of it before the pandemic.
16:19 The pandemic has only exacerbated the debt burden on people, many of whom would be poor
16:24 even without having to pay the interest and principle on their governments’ debt.
16:30 Every day,
16:31 high debt-service payments are diverting scarce resources that could be used for urgent needs:
16:38 for health, education, nutrition – and also climate action.
16:44 Since the outbreak of COVID,
16:45 the World Bank has been the largest provider of net transfers
16:49 to IDA and least-developed countries.
16:51 From April to December 2020,
16:54 our net transfers to these countries alone were close to $17 billion,
16:59 of which nearly $5.8 billion were on grant terms,
17:04 And our new commitments were almost $30 billion,
17:08 But much more is needed.
17:10 The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI)
17:15 —which I and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called for almost exactly one year ago—
17:22 has helped.
17:24 It has enabled 43 countries to postpone nearly $6 billion
17:28 in debt-service payments between May and December [2020],
17:32 with further savings of up to $7.3 billion expected
17:37 between then and its current end-date of June.
17:41 Yet so far,
17:42 the relief has been less than anticipated
17:45 because not all creditors participated.
17:49 Large non-Paris Club bilateral creditors
17:53 have only partially participated [in the DSSI]
17:57 and, most troubling of all,
18:01 bondholders and other private creditors
18:04 have continued to collect full repayments throughout the crisis.
18:09 The recent DSSI experience shows that commercial creditors won’t comply
18:13 with calls for “voluntary participation” in debt relief initiatives.
18:18 As the implementation of the Common Framework commences,
18:22 G20 countries need to instruct and create incentives
18:26 for all their public bilateral creditors to participate in debt relief efforts,
18:32 including national policy banks.
18:35 They also need to forcefully encourage the private creditors
18:39 under their jurisdiction to participate fully in sovereign debt relief efforts
18:44 for low-income countries.
18:46 There are specific measures that should be considered by G7 countries
18:50 to encourage more participation.
18:53 To give just one example, sovereign immunity laws might be amended
18:57 to include immunity from attachment by commercial creditors
19:02 who refuse to participate in a Common Framework treatment
19:10 Through the Common Framework and the DSSI,
19:13 we can identify unsustainable debt where it exists and help restructure it
19:18 to moderate levels. For countries with high risk of debt distress,
19:21 but still sustainable debt levels,
19:25 we should consider reprofiling it—by extending maturities, for example.
19:29 But all of this will require more participation than we have seen so far
19:34 from the private sector, and some official bilateral creditors.
19:40 As in the climate area,
19:41 the economic and finance challenges surrounding debt are huge
19:45 and worthy of your attention and public discussion.
19:49 First, what are the tradeoffs between assistance during liquidity crises
19:54 for near-term debt payments versus longer-term support for sustainability
20:01 that allows the people to make progress against poverty?
20:05 For which countries is it appropriate to delay principle and interest payments
20:09 but without reducing the stock of debt or the interest rates on it?
20:14 For which countries should the total debt burden be reduced
20:18 given ‘low for long’ outlook?
20:21 Second, how can accountability be achieved given the difference in time horizons
20:26 of those signing debt and investment contracts
20:29 and those people in the countries that bear the burden?
20:33 For example, how can a system of contracts work
20:36 when it is strongly in the interest of government officials
20:40 to accept stringent contract terms for debt
20:43 even though the long-term payments will be difficult?
20:47 Third, how should the international financial system operate
20:51 when there is no bankruptcy process for sovereign debt?
20:55 How can the system resolve the glaring imbalance between creditors,
21:00 who have the power and the responsibility to fully enforce contracts;
21:04 and debtor countries, who are often poorer and have less capacity
21:09 to resolve disagreements?
21:11 Clearly, transparency is going to be a key part of the solution to these problems.
21:16 The resistance to debt transparency is intense.
21:19 Airtight nondisclosure agreements often protect contracts, leaving their terms
21:25 – and sometimes even their existence – secret.
21:28 Some contracts include almost the reverse of a collective action clause
21:34 – a clause requiring debtors to exempt the creditor from any comparable treatment,
21:40 where debt restructuring, for example with the Paris Club, is agreed.
21:45 In debt, as in so many areas, sunlight is truly the best remedy.
21:50 Given our long-track record in helping countries to address their debt problems,
21:55 the Bank, together with the IMF, will continue to engage and support countries
22:00 in their efforts to achieve a moderate debt position.
22:05 I’ve discussed climate and debt in some detail
22:09 and some of the economic challenges they present.
22:12 I’d like to close with a discussion of inequality.
22:14 As I said at the outset, our response to poverty, climate change, and inequality
22:20 will be defining choices of our age.
22:23 Inequality is most apparent in the direct effects of COVID,
22:28 that hits informal workers and the vulnerable the most;
22:30 and in the unequal access to vaccines for developing countries.
22:38 Inequality is also worsening due to the focus of fiscal and monetary stimulus
22:46 on support for the formal sector and selected assets
22:50 at the expense of debt owed by future generations.
22:55 That problem is most applicable to advanced economies,
23:00 but a similar effect hits the indebted people in the developing countries
23:05 because sovereign debts and debt rollovers
23:08 have their biggest positive impact on those signing the contracts
23:13 – creditors and debtors –
23:15 whereas the burden of the debt often falls on the poor.
23:19 I spoke at length about Reversing the Inequality Pandemic
23:24 in October 2020 ahead of our Annual Meetings last year.
23:29 I explained the work that we are doing to address the challenges posed by inequality,
23:34 including our financial support through COVID-related emergency health programs
23:40 and cash transfer programs.
23:42 These inequalities raise a third set of economic challenges
23:46 I’d like to raise them to your attention.
23:49 First, what’s the fastest, most effective path to better vaccine distribution?
23:55 It’s important for the vaccination process to start in more countries
24:00 because vaccinations will take many months due to constraints in delivery capacity.
24:06 The World Bank will have arranged vaccine financing for 50 developing countries by mid-year,
24:13 but the supply issues are unresolved.
24:16 Second, as I discussed in the climate section,
24:19 how does the world finance the necessary investments in global public goods by poorer countries?
24:26 Third, is there any pathway to developing countries
24:29 for the massive fiscal stimulus and run-up in national debt
24:34 being applied by the advanced economies?
24:38 On the other hand,
24:45 the loss of investments, skills, and schooling during the pandemic
24:49 has been catastrophic for the developping world.
24:53 The data is clear that poorer countries are not making the gains in living standards
24:58 that were expected pre-crisis, and are falling further behind.
25:03 And, fourth, because the asset purchases by advanced economies
25:07 are so large, long-term and selective,
25:12 can the purchases be spread out more fairly
25:15 to improve global capital allocation,
25:19 benefit smaller businesses and new entrants,
25:21 and allow borrowers needing short-term financing to have more access?
25:28 Let me conclude with this:
25:30 COVID-19 has brought us to a crossroads. In our policy choices,
25:34 as we look to the future, we can avoid errors of the past.
25:38 To repair the damage, we will need integrated, long-run strategies
25:43 that emphasize green, resilient, and inclusive development.
25:48 This must be aligned with the need for policies
25:51 that help countries increase literacy,
25:55 reduce stunting and malnutrition,
25:58 ensure clean water and energy access,
26:01 and provide better health care.
26:04 We must help countries improve their readiness for future pandemics.
26:08 We need to help them accelerate the development and adoption
26:12 of digital technologies.
26:14 We need to work to improve and expand local supply chains
26:18 and strengthen biodiversity and ecosystems.
26:22 As I’ve emphasized during this address,
26:24 cooperation between academics, development practitioners and policy makers
26:29 also has a key role to play.
26:31 The world faces overwhelming challenges.
26:34 In some cases, the answers are clear,
26:36 and the challenge is to communicate these clearly to policymakers.
26:40 In other cases, academics – including those at LSE –
26:46 can help to break new ground, in tackling the unanswered questions
26:51 – and in doing so help to invent a greener, more resilient,
26:56 and inclusive model of prosperity for the 21st century.
27:00 The World Bank Group can be a key champion in helping to address climate change,
27:05 debt, and inequality
27:08 bringing to the table public and private sector solutions,
27:12 as well as the unique combination of analytics,
27:16 financial support, and convening power.
27:19 Today, we have a historic opportunity to change course
27:22 —to improve development outcomes for countries,
27:25 to overcome the rising dangers of climate change,
27:28 systemic inequality, social instability, and conflict.
27:33 In our efforts to rebuild,
27:35 we can generate a recovery that ensures a broad and lasting rise in prosperity
27:41 especially for the poorest and most marginalized.
27:44 It’s an opportunity that we can't afford to pass up.
27:48 So I want to thank you. Thanks very much Minouche.
27:52 —Thank you, David.
27:53 Thank you for that incredibly comprehensive summary
27:56 of the biggest challenges of our time.
27:59 And I wanted to start just by picking up where you ended
28:02 about the lessons from this year and what we should learn from it.
28:07 There are clearly some countries that have done better than others,
28:10 some approaches that have worked better than others.
28:14 What would you change going forward?
28:16 Given the lessons that we have learned from this year of COVID?
28:22 —I mentioned several. So to recap a bit,
28:29 I think we need better analytics,
28:32 in the climate area because the challenges are big and there's a lot of work
28:37 to be done on that. So that's one, and the World Bank is trying
28:40 to really beef up those efforts.
28:43 That helps countries do their NDCs,
28:45 for example,
28:46 and they're engaged with the Paris agreement and it's important that they
28:51 find good ways in which to engage,
28:55 in the area of debt. I went through some of the things, you know, there,
28:58 there is this oddity, call it,
29:01 where we have a world that's based on contract law,
29:04 but we have this odd situation where there's not a bankruptcy process
29:08 for sovereigns.
29:10 So all the rest of the world really has some way,
29:14 if a mistake is made to remedy it and move forward,
29:17 but we don't have that for the sovereign debt area.
29:20 That means that it's growing fast. You know,
29:23 there's lots more money being put into it.
29:26 But there's not a way to resolve it when mistakes are made,
29:30 when a country doesn't do as well as the leaders hoped that it would do
29:34 or when the money isn't used very effectively.
29:37 So we have that.
29:40 And then I guess I'll mention, and conclude on the vaccinations:
29:45 this is a huge area
29:46 and I mentioned in the remarks that we got to get people vaccinations
29:52 actually started in many countries
29:55 because some... you know,
29:57 think of a country, if it only has the capacity to do 2000 vaccinations a week
30:02 because of the constraints in their healthcare system,
30:06 then the earlier that it can be started, the better.
30:09 And I think that's going to be an important step.
30:12 —Well, you mentioned vaccines, in your talk that the Bank had financed
30:17 programs in 50 countries, which is not a traditional area of the Bank to act in,
30:23 but you also mentioned the constraints on supply.
30:26 And what would you say going forward that we could do to ensure
30:31 equitable access to vaccine supply?
30:35 —These are, these are profound questions.
30:37 So what we hope we will have 50 countries by mid-year.
30:41 So we're in the process now, week by week, the board approves operations,
30:45 and then the countries began, they have the money
30:50 for the financing and can interact with COVAX.
30:54 All of the money can go to COVAX if it can obtain supplies,
30:59 but as you've seen in that in recent days, their supply lines
31:03 for example, from India,
31:06 appeared to be very constrained for now.
31:09 So the world is working through these contract challenges.
31:14 I think that single biggest thing that could be done,
31:19 is if there could be more transparency on the options
31:25 that the advanced economies have
31:27 meaning to really put on the table,
31:30 how much of the supply are you going to take?
31:34 And then how much is left?
31:36 And then the same thing from the suppliers and their licensees.
31:41 Some of the inventors of vaccines have licensed the production to others.
31:46 So, if each were able to have maybe in a confidential setting
31:51 an exchange of views on who has contracts
31:54 and who is required to give their supply to the advanced economies,
32:01 then that would allow us to see,
32:05 what might be available for people in developing countries.
32:09 We're I think the people are working through these problems,
32:12 but every week counts because of the severity of the pandemic.
32:19 —Like with debt relief, you point to transparency and better information
32:22 as being the key to taking a more efficient, global approach.
32:26 I wanted to ask you about debt
32:30 and the fact that we...
32:33 the system that we currently have for providing debt relief
32:37 is arguably too little, too late.
32:38 Similar to the vaccine response: too little, too late.
32:43 And, the question would be:
32:46 how could we get a better system for dealing with debt relief going forward?
32:53 —I'm glad you mentioned transparency.
32:56 I really think that governments and,
32:58 – you know, the World Bank is the keeper of one of the important databases on this –
33:04 It's called IDS: international debt statistics.
33:08 And so we do a questionnaire,
33:12 but it's an interactive questionnaire with countries every year
33:15 to say how much debt you owe.
33:18 And now we've started reconciling that with the creditor countries.
33:23 So we go back to the lenders and say:
33:27 "do you agree with this data?"
33:29 And so we're trying to have accurate data.
33:32 That's pretty comprehensive.
33:34 I'll give you one example:
33:36 in the past, if a central bank lend to another central bank,
33:40 it was maybe called "a swap"
33:41 and it wasn't counted as that,
33:43 even though interest rates might have been charged.
33:48 And so now we're trying to include that in the database
33:51 so that people can see the true commitments of their, of their countries.
33:57 And then our hope is that by having more information,
34:01 people will ask about... what's in between that data,
34:06 where are there gaps in the data. We're trying to fill those in.
34:10 And they might also try to work with countries
34:13 on ways to improve the contracts that they enter into.
34:18 One of the biggest developments in recent years has been well,
34:23 I'd like to mention two,
34:25 that have occurred over the last five years or so,
34:29 which is the routine inclusion of non-disclosure clauses.
34:34 So, for the lending that China's doing,
34:37 they're routinely putting clauses into the contracts that say you can't
34:41 disclose the nature of the contracts that makes it hard to have the transparency
34:46 and another development in recent years is that, um,
34:50 many or most of the big contracts,
34:53 the big debt contracts are now collateralized.
34:56 Meaning the governments of the countries are
34:58 committing the future resources of the country to payment of the debt.
35:03 And so the people of the country are somewhat left out of that equation.
35:09 So their country is being used...
35:11 their resources are being used to pay the debt,
35:14 and these are very hard for the financial community to untangle.
35:19 So those are some of the... I think,
35:22 a much greater degree of transparency,
35:24 and I think with the force of the G7, the G20,
35:29 with strong backing by the creditor governments
35:32 would go a long way toward improving or avoiding
35:35 these waves of debt, one after another,
35:41 that have been coming at the world for the last forty years.
35:42 —Very good point. And without transparency,
35:45 it's very hard to have fair burden-sharing in terms of debt relief,
35:48 unless all the evidence is on the table. Very good point.
35:52 I now have a question for you from Lord Nick Stern, my colleague at LSE
35:57 and another former Worldbanker.
35:59 Nick's question is:
36:01 "David, thank you so much for the very thoughtful lecture and for your commitment
36:04 to bring together the challenges of climate and development.
36:07 As the shareholders press the MDBs to step up their response
36:11 to the tasks of tackling climate COVID and development,
36:16 would you agree that the shareholders themselves,
36:19 particularly from the richer countries should be challenged
36:22 to commit to the strategies and resources for the multilateral development banks,
36:27 which will be necessary over the crucial few years ahead.
36:30 Indeed, this whole decade.
36:31 Thank you and best, Nick.
36:35 —Thank you, Nick. Yes, I agree with the thrust of that,
36:40 you know, I've mentioned in my remarks,
36:43 the World Bank has increased by 65%,
36:45 our commitments in calendar 2020 from 2019.
36:49 So that's a big increase.
36:51 And our commitment on the climate side has also had an add a big expansion
36:56 to record territory for the World Bank. Of course,
36:59 we can do more and we're making very ambitious targets into the future. Now,
37:03 if we turn that back...
37:05 I'm looking forward to working with the shareholder countries.
37:12 And, let me go through some of the ways that we can do that, and we invite that.
37:17 One is on NDCs.
37:18 So with the developing countries, they're at a point
37:22 in their development history where they're being asked
37:27 to submit or to turn in their commitments
37:33 to the Paris agreement in ways that will affect both the mitigation side,
37:37 meaning reducing some of the dirty fuels that are being used,
37:42 and also to do more on adaptation.
37:45 And so that they need...
37:48 We can really play a role by providing technical assistance.
37:52 And I think the shareholder countries,
37:54 both the developing countries themselves can do a good job of these
37:59 [inaudible] season and really own it,
38:02 put it into their development plans in ways that they're able to finance and
38:06 afford and understand and politically support within their countries.
38:11 So that's important. And then for the,
38:13 for the donor countries or the more advanced economies,
38:17 I think they can look inward at their own NDCs and participate in that effort.
38:22 One other thing I'll mention, um, to Nick is, is, and I,
38:27 I went into it a little bit in the remarks is the importance of diagnostics.
38:32 One of the things that we're doing at our new climate action plan,
38:36 which is in the process of coming out over the next couple of weeks,
38:41 is the,
38:42 is the importance of focusing or prioritizing in both areas,
38:46 mitigation and adaptation.
38:48 So if we think about the sources of greenhouse gases around the
38:53 world, they're, they're relatively concentrated.
38:57 And so the world needs to think about what is the plan for this particular
39:02 source of one of the major contributors of greenhouse gases,
39:07 because it's going to take the world to,
39:10 to focus a lot of financial resources on solving those problems.
39:15 Some of the big users of coal, for example,
39:18 right now don't have an alternative to that.
39:20 So then there has to be a con concrete plan of how are you going to finance the
39:24 transition to,
39:26 to lower carbon fuel sources in order to keep the grid
39:31 running in those, in those countries? Uh,
39:34 so that's an area where diagnostics is going to be important.
39:38 And so shareholders have to recognize that as they make the commitments to the
39:43 net zero environment,
39:44 there needs to be a much better system for carbon credits and consideration of
39:49 carbon taxation. Because as,
39:52 as what economics can contribute to all of this is that
39:56 incentives matter. Uh,
39:58 and also that markets forming markets has to be based on meaningful
40:03 standards. So right now there's the concept of,
40:07 carbon offsets, but not really the reality of that.
40:11 So people are paying for it and then continuing to increase their greenhouse gas
40:15 emissions, without,
40:18 without actually having a workable market in order
40:22 to, function.
40:24 So I'll throw those out as areas of interaction with shareholders,
40:28 and I could have done 10 more, but I won't, I won't go on,
40:31 but I think it's very important to think about there being kind of a,
40:35 a two ways street between the multilaterals and the
40:41 shareholders in terms of making progress.
40:44 Very good. Thank you.
40:45 And I'm now going to turn over to two LSE students who are going to ask that
40:49 questions first, you'll hear from Brian who's from the United States,
40:53 completing an MSC in health and international development.
40:56 And then you hear from Nour in Asheville,
40:59 who was an Egyptian student completing an MSC in development management.
41:03 So over to Brian Allen first.
41:06 Thank you very much, and thank you very much,
41:08 president MAlpass for coming to the LSE and,
41:10 taking the time to take questions from students. We really appreciate it. Um,
41:14 I'm interested to get your perspective on how the World Bank has incorporated
41:18 past critiques and criticisms and past learnings in formulating
41:23 and implementing the COVID-19 portfolio.
41:27 Okay. That's a great question, Brian. Thank you. Um, the World Bank.
41:33 So, um,
41:34 w it's true that we haven't done as big of vaccination
41:39 operation as the current one. Uh, but the World Bank was very,
41:44 has been very involved in healthcare really since, since its inception,
41:49 um, more and more in recent decades.
41:53 And that means that there are people within the World Bank with immense insight
41:58 on healthcare systems and health delivery systems.
42:01 And so that was one of the reasons we were able to quickly,
42:05 to move as quickly as we did a year ago. So in April and May of 2020,
42:11 in the face of the pandemic, and with people working from home,
42:14 we were able to put together a hundred,
42:18 specific country specific programs that were,
42:21 that would finance the personal protective equipment. So those,
42:27 and other, other direct COVID, health responses.
42:31 So those relationships that's be in part because the World Bank has,
42:36 relationships in country and offices. You know,
42:39 some usually pretty sizable offices in countries and,
42:43 and people that are used to dealing with the healthcare system.
42:47 And then also that we could bring to bear the knowledge of the vaccination
42:51 process. Uh, the World Bank over, over,
42:55 over decades has been involved in the vaccinations for, for,
42:59 in the treatment and vaccinations for measles and for polio, for,
43:04 for yellow fever, and for,
43:09 the treatment of malaria of,
43:11 of severe illnesses and also Ebola. And so those,
43:15 the knowledge of how specific countries deal with vaccinations
43:20 was critical. So in, October, November,
43:24 when we went to the board with vaccination programs that the board,
43:29 understood those they'd been involved in those programs input,
43:33 help put them together in an effective way. And so then in October,
43:38 November the bank working with other partners with UNICEF,
43:42 with who was able to do,
43:45 over a hundred assessments of vaccination programs in countries.
43:50 So anyway, that's a long answer, but that the point is that,
43:54 there's a huge amount of knowledge on this specific area delivery of healthcare
43:59 in poor countries, including rural areas.
44:03 And we're trying to apply all of that almost every week now,
44:08 as we bring these new programs forward, just in the last two weeks,
44:12 we've brought forward vaccination programs for Bangladesh, for the Philippines,
44:16 for Ethiopia, for Nepal, for Afghanistan and, and, and others.
44:21 And so that's,
44:22 that's just in the two weeks and we have many more
44:27 coming kind of week by week where,
44:29 and the only way that can be is to have this network of country offices
44:34 that know how to interact with the governments they're working with.
44:39 Great. Thank you very much. I appreciate it. Thanks.
44:42 Nour, over to you.
44:46 Thank you so much for the introduction and thank you,
44:49 president Malpass for your speech. It was really interesting,
44:52 and it's a pleasure meeting you today.
44:54 So my question is more related to education and human capital
45:01 [inaudible] needed for home-based learning, um,
45:03 and the disruption cost to education in developing countries,
45:05 and especially in rural areas.
45:07 To what extent do you think the current pandemic would have a longterm impact on
45:11 human capital and what measures do governments need to take to mitigate this
45:16 effect? Thank you.
45:18 Thanks. This is a huge problem at the beginning of the pandemic, there was hope.
45:23 I think that distance learning could be made to work. Some countries did that,
45:27 but many did not. And so,
45:29 and their school systems or the education system is a critical
45:34 linchpin for a lot of countries.
45:36 It's where girls were safe and were, were being educated.
45:40 And then that stopped all of a sudden. And so, you know,
45:45 I don't know that there's data yet, but if you think of it, how many,
45:50 how many girls that were 13 years old or 14 years old,
45:55 are, are lost to the system, because of the closure of schools,
45:59 the schools were also important in nutrition because they often provided,
46:04 the, the, some, some,
46:06 nutritious food during the day for children that are at their vital growing
46:11 stage. So I I'm just mentioning that because, I mean,
46:15 the core issue is the backward movement in,
46:18 in terms of literacy and that they,
46:21 key building blocks of skills that's working capital,
46:25 which you're asked what you're, you're focusing on, but, you know, the, the,
46:30 the education systems often are,
46:33 are important in these other areas as well.
46:37 So we've been trying to help countries be ready to
46:41 reopen as quickly as possible, you know, around the world,
46:45 different different countries have different experiences,
46:50 of, of difficulty. You know, I, I live in Washington, DC, DC,
46:54 and the schools simply aren't open.
46:56 So a full year has gone by for kids to add an impressionable age,
47:01 that,
47:02 that is very hard to substitute when you're looking at a screen.
47:07 So I mentioned all of those, we're working as hard as we can to help countries,
47:13 reopen the schools in a safe way and begin the process of kind of
47:18 recapturing, some of the loss, lost learning.
47:22 The World Bank has done a lot of several or some
47:27 reports.
47:28 Some of them really detailed reports on the cost of
47:33 the, of the school closures, you know,
47:35 and so there are big numbers around, as far as the future lost income,
47:40 $10 trillion of income lost, by the,
47:44 by the impact of the pandemic on education. And I, I, I want to close,
47:49 I I'm really troubled by the impact on, girls and the vulnerable,
47:53 because the,
47:54 one of the one part of that development that's been going on is to
47:59 try to use school systems as, as,
48:03 a place of safety and advancement for people that are
48:07 left out by their society. And so th that's one of the most,
48:11 I think harmful losses in this area, and we're trying to get it back.
48:16 Good. I've got over 50 questions for you.
48:19 So I'm going to turn to them as quickly as I can.
48:21 I'll start with Holly McKinsey.
48:23 Who's an LSE MSC student in international relations,
48:27 and she asks [inaudible] estimates,
48:29 developing countries have immediate needs of two and a half trillion to combat
48:33 the Ben devek.
48:34 You noted the World Bank will make full billion available to developing
48:37 countries by 2021.
48:40 So the World Bank is far from the only organization assisting developing
48:43 countries, tackle the pandemic.
48:45 How can the international community work together to meet the short fall?
48:49 Uh, this is the,
48:51 the age old important question of development that,
48:56 resources that are available through the World Bank.
48:59 The World Bank has the biggest in,
49:01 in most fields by far compared to other
49:05 international organizations, including,
49:09 arms of the United nations. Uh,
49:11 but it doesn't have nearly enough money in your, your, your, your point.
49:16 It sounds like 2.5 trillion versus, versus,
49:21 a few billions of dollars. So exactly right. We,
49:25 we need to prioritize the things that we work on,
49:28 but the bottom line answer to yours,
49:31 the question is there won't be enough. Uh, we need a lot more,
49:36 I think, from
49:37 [inaudible]. So that's one source, but especially from the private sectors, you know, for a lot of the countries that we work in, the biggest source of funds is remittances from t heir people working, across borders. Um, which is an amazing thing.
49:53 If you think about, as, as the people leave the country,
49:56 they find jobs and they make enough money that they can send
50:01 extra home back to their families or to their cousins. They're there,
50:06 they're there or invest. One of the big,
50:08 biggest sources of foreign direct investment for,
50:12 for the poor countries is their own,
50:15 their own citizens living abroad who have made enough money,
50:19 that they can invest back in their Homeland. Um,
50:22 so those are trends that we need to encourage World Bank works hard to try make
50:27 remittances cheaper so that there's not such a, a spread.
50:31 I mentioned Sudan briefly in my remarks, we've just, they,
50:36 they were able to, um, unify their exchange rate in,
50:46 It's a, it's a breakthrough because by unifying the exchange rate,
50:50 then people abroad are much more willing to put money into the country. Uh,
50:55 and so those are steps that are important in Ethiopia and Nigeria yet to be
50:59 taken because those, dual exchange rates block the inflow.
51:04 So I've mentioned several things, I guess, in conclusion, to,
51:09 to get enough money for the UNCTAD goals.
51:13 We've got to recognize that non-governmental sources,
51:18 not, not even multilateral development banks,
51:21 it's got to come from the people of the country and in outside
51:25 investors recognizing the value of the climate in the country. That,
51:31 and, and, and that means,
51:33 really having systems that allow,
51:38 foreign direct investment, local investment.
51:42 Oftentimes the biggest need for the countries is to have the rich people that
51:47 actually still live in their country,
51:50 investing heavily in new businesses within their country.
51:53 We could think about Nigeria. It has a huge amount of assets,
51:58 but not enough investment in new businesses and new entrance in women,
52:02 businesses and so on around Nigeria.
52:05 So the biggest single source for this is going to be those
52:10 people that, the, the, the, the,
52:13 the investors who have the potential to put money into the
52:18 poorest countries.
52:20 Okay. So I've got a question from Joy Bailey who asks,
52:23 can constant growth ever be sustainable.
52:26 Is there a role for deep growth?
52:30 Um, no, I, I think history shows there will be cycles,
52:34 but I do think that growth for poor countries can be
52:39 achievable. Um, and you can think of it as a catch-up.
52:43 I think of it as knowledge sharing,
52:45 if the people in the poor countries no have access to
52:50 information, access to electricity, to clean water,
52:53 and then they can look at how agriculture is being done by their
52:58 neighbors.
52:59 And then they can do a better job in agriculture and on up the chain.
53:04 I know this is, you know, there are,
53:06 there's been a lots of work in development theory. Uh,
53:10 I think of it in terms of, of a recipe that you, you know,
53:15 you have a recipe where you need all the ingredients to come together,
53:19 and then you're able to make that, that,
53:21 that progress that would be sustainable growth. So I,
53:25 I guess I want to say, but, you know, for macro economists,
53:29 there's always going to be some ups and downs, some kind of cycle,
53:33 but from my standpoint for development, we certainly should be trying to have,
53:39 uh, a world where many of the poor countries can grow year after
53:44 year after year, by,
53:46 by putting together the elements that make it possible for their people.
53:52 I'm going to take a final question on climate change from Harriet [inaudible] an
53:56 LSE alumna. She asks as companies come out of lockdown,
54:00 they can reset supplier relationships by local and green.
54:05 How would you advise companies to use the supply chains to be more green
54:10 and could a global approach to supply chains actually be
54:14 counterproductive to tackling climate change?
54:18 Um, I mean, that's a complicated question,
54:21 and I would say we need to apply diagnostics or data let's let's
54:26 research, that point, that I guess she is,
54:31 as she is making, um, I,
54:35 I think that trade and commerce, meaning,
54:40 villages trading with each other people within villages trading with each other,
54:44 you know, there's,
54:45 there's an original concept that you have comparative advantage in something
54:49 that you know, how to do. And the goal,
54:52 one goal of economics is to share that with someone else who has a different
54:57 comparative advantage, and that means across borders as well.
55:01 So global supply chains, I think,
55:04 should be supportive of, of,
55:08 of a greener outcome. Um, that goes, I guess, I'll,
55:12 I'll re repeat one of the points I made that well,
55:16 w so diagnostics is going to be important,
55:20 but then we also need to,
55:22 keep an eye on prioritizing within the,
55:26 within the supply chain where the most effective use of,
55:30 of, trade is going to be. And that gets us into, you know,
55:36 these really tough economic questions of carbon pricing and
55:41 of, of carbon taxation and the incentive structure in order.
55:46 One thing I think we should do is try to make sure that there aren't
55:52 global supply chain,
55:53 some of the global supply chains probably should be identified
55:58 as being counterproductive to the green, goals that, that,
56:03 that people are working towards. And so maybe prioritizing those,
56:08 I, I guess I I've, I've wandered around a little bit in my answer,
56:12 but that answer to her is I think we need the diagnostics in order to
56:16 identify some of the global supply chains that maybe could be,
56:21 could be improved. And then other ones I will assert,
56:26 probably are very valuable the way they now operate.
56:31 Okay. Well, I think, we're going to have to,
56:36 to wrap up, although I've got 59 questions now today,
56:42 but I think it's only fair to, um,
56:44 to stop at this point and thank you for that,
56:48 that incredible overview of the issues,
56:52 many of which you'll be tackling in the upcoming spring meetings and,
56:57 and hopefully with great success.
56:59 I also wanted to thank the audience for the excellent questions,
57:03 thank our students,
57:05 for joining in and invite everyone to join us again for future LSE
57:10 events, which we hold regularly. And in which we, we entice,
57:14 outstanding speakers from all over the world,
57:17 president Malpass it's been a pleasure to have you here. And,
57:21 and please do come visit us again, hopefully in person.
57:25 Minouche, Baroness. Thank you so much.
57:27 And thanks everybody for the great questions and the, great,
57:30 great interaction. We covered a lot and I welcome it. And,
57:36 con thanks. Thanks LSE. Thanks Minouche. Bye.
57:40 Bye. Everyone take care of yourselves, right?

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The World Bank Group’s Response to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) Pandemic

Global Economic Prospects

Resilient Recovery Series

Coronavirus Live Series

Speakers

David R. Malpass

President, World Bank Group

@DavidMalpassWBG
Minouche Shafik

Director of London School of Economics

@LSEnews

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