[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
Hello, everybody. Welcome to this episode of You Ask, We Answer on World Bank Live, coming to you from Washington, DC. I'm your host, Noreyana Fernando, and today we are tackling a big one: unlocking job creation in fragile settings. Creating jobs is difficult anywhere. In places affected by fragility, conflict, and violence, businesses face even greater uncertainty, and investors may be reluctant to take on the risk. So what does it take to help businesses invest, grow, and create jobs in these challenging markets? To help answer your questions, I'm joined by two World Bank Group experts. Anastasia Gekis is Head of FCV at IFC, and Randolphe Gohore is an underwriter for the Global Transaction Team at MIGA. Anastasia, Randolphe, welcome.

[ANASTASIA GEKIS]
Thank you very much, Noreyana. I'm looking forward very much to the conversation.

[RANDOLPHE GOHORE]
Thank you.

[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
It's great to have you both here because we have received questions from people around the world, and we want to hear from you, too. In fact, we want you to head over to worldbank.org/live and take our poll to join the conversation right now. Our question today is: What do you think is the biggest barrier to attracting private investment in fragile and conflict-affected countries? So while you take a stab at that, let's get started over here. Our first question is a fundamental one. We have Nesru from Ethiopia, Flinio Latimer from the Dominican Republic, and Abdul from Bangladesh, and many others as well in the chat who are asking: Why should people care? Why should people care about fragile and conflict-affected situations, and why are we talking about this in the context of the World Bank Group? Anastasia, let's start with you on this one.

[ANASTASIA GEKIS]
Thank you. This is the perfect question to begin this conversation. The statistics show that, as of 2024, 50% of the extreme poor lived in fragile, conflict, and violence-affected settings, and this number is expected to grow to about 60% by 2030. Not only do we have that stark statistic, but we also know that 260 million youth will be entering the job market in fragile settings by 2035. So that desire and demand for job creation in these settings is really why we created the new World Bank Group FCV Strategy, which takes as its foundation the North Star of the World Bank Group, which is job creation. And we will be focusing on job creation in the World Bank Group's five priority sectors of manufacturing, agribusiness, infrastructure, healthcare, and tourism.

[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
Jobs as a North Star. Well said, Anastasia. And now let's move into a topic that we know keeps investors up at night, and that is risk. What are the biggest risks that stop private investors from funding projects in fragile markets, and how do IFC and MIGA help reduce those risks? Randolphe, perhaps you can take this one.

[RANDOLPHE GOHORE]
Thank you. That's a very good question from the audience. When an investor is considering funding a project, they are facing two different types of risk, to put it simply: commercial risk and non-commercial risk. First, commercial risk. The question when it comes to commercial risk is ultimately: Will the project succeed? An investor will be facing credit risk, market risk, operational risk, and compliance risk. Those are types of risks that investors are familiar with. They are ready to take on that risk, and they can benefit from the support of IFC with financing and advisory services. Second, you have non-commercial risk: political risk. This is where the struggle is because you are dealing with risks that you don't fully control. The main risks are expropriation of assets: Will the project be expropriated at some point in the future? Will policies and regulations coming in later work favorably or to the detriment of my operation? Will I be able to convert my local currency earnings into hard currencies and repatriate those funds? And if war breaks out, what are my protections? Will the company survive? These are parameters that are key for an investment decision, and this is where MIGA is relevant because it provides political risk insurance against these risks that I just mentioned. For the audience to put this together, let's maybe share an example. In 2023, IFC and MIGA supported a company in eastern DRC, in Goma, called Nuru. Nuru is a company that has been on a mission to serve the Congolese people with affordable, clean energy from solar mini-grids. In 2025, a major conflict broke out in Goma, where Nuru is currently established. But despite this conflict, Nuru has been able to continue to serve the local community. Why is that? Partly because IFC has been able to provide financing, which helped Nuru deploy the operation on the ground, but also because they have a MIGA guarantee against the risk of war. What this means is that if one of the assets is destroyed in the conflict, they can benefit from MIGA compensation to repair this asset or replace it. So this shifts the dynamic for an investor making an investment decision. We're not talking about relocating the operation. We're not shutting down the business. We are continuing to push through the crisis because we have that support. I think this is a perfect example of how MIGA and IFC can come in in the context of conflict and fragility and support a company to bring development impact and jobs on the ground.

[ANASTASIA GEKIS]
Randolphe, you spoke about Nuru, which is a great example. But I wanted to also reflect on the fact that, to bring it all together, the value that we have as a World Bank Group is being able to engage on the policy reform side, being able to engage on market and sector analytics and reform and engagement to build those sectors, and then also on private investment. Nuru is a great example of bringing it all together. And that's essential in fragile, conflict, and violence-affected settings.

[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
Exactly. It's also a great example because it shows that you are proactive and the systems were in place and ready to be deployed when conflict hit. Thank you. That's a great example. Let's stay on the local, country level because we have a question specifically about entrepreneurs and SMEs in Ethiopia. The question says: "Many Ethiopian entrepreneurs have innovative business ideas but cannot access affordable financing, investment, or risk guarantees. What specific programs does the World Bank Group have to support startups and SMEs in fragile and transitioning economies like Ethiopia so they can grow and create jobs?" Anastasia, I'm going to turn to you for this one, and feel free to broaden your answer beyond Ethiopia as well.

[ANASTASIA GEKIS]
I will, just because a core tenet of the World Bank Group FCV Strategy is support and engagement to SMEs in fragile, conflict, and violence-affected settings. Ethiopia is a great example, but so is the experience that I just had recently in Afghanistan, where I went to visit some private sector companies. These are really small enterprises that are looking to grow and encourage private activity and economic activity in Afghanistan. There are a number of ways in which IFC, and the World Bank Group in particular, can support SMEs. Clearly, I mentioned earlier the regulatory environment that we need to encourage and enable, but we also have a range of tools open to us. Randolphe mentioned the advisory and upstream support. A good example of this is the Local Champions Initiative that we have at the moment in Africa, but which is expanding more broadly. What this initiative does is build the capacity of these enterprises so that they are bankable. You need to build them up so that they can grow and so that IFC, MIGA, and others can support them in terms of financing to expand and create those necessary jobs. In addition, we have a focus around sectors, digitalization, SME ecosystems, our Funds Group, and early-stage ventures. These are just small examples of how we can support SMEs directly. Finally, let me just remind everybody that we have the ability to also work through financial institutions to enable access to finance for SMEs in many of these fragile settings.

[RANDOLPHE GOHORE]
In addition to what we do as IFC and MIGA, as Anastasia said, through financial institutions to support SMEs, I think there's also the role that the World Bank Group plays when we are involved in transformational infrastructure projects. If you take the Lobito Corridor project, for example, in Angola, for which MIGA just issued a guarantee last week, this is a massive railway project connecting the Port of Lobito on the Atlantic coast of Angola to DRC, with a potential extension that the World Bank Group is pushing to Zambia. A project like that is not just a railway. It is an economic enabler. It is a project that will support the local economy by reducing transit time for people and merchandise. It will also reduce logistics costs. It will integrate local producers, local farmers, and SMEs into a national value chain, but also into a regional value chain through the connection with other countries. I think there is this very interesting angle where all the entities of the World Bank Group can play a role when we are involved in those transformational infrastructure projects.

[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
I'd actually like to take a little beat right now and thank everybody who's been joining the conversation online. We want you to continue to be part of this. We have our experts online with you right now answering as many questions as they can in the chat. As you recall, we also had a live poll up on World Bank Live, so let's take a moment to hear the verdict. We asked you: What do you think is the biggest barrier to attracting private investment in fragile and conflict-affected countries? Let's take a look at the results here on screen. Political instability and violence is leading the responses so far. Randolphe, Anastasia, any quick reactions? Does anything here surprise you?

[RANDOLPHE GOHORE]
I'm a bit surprised to see the lack of infrastructure at 6%. I think it's such a cross-cutting issue, and it's often an issue that compounds other challenges. So if I was taking that poll, I would probably put it in second or third position. But I think there's no right or wrong answer. All of those issues are critical barriers to private investment, and they need to be addressed by the World Bank Group.

[ANASTASIA GEKIS]
I think I just want to say that the fact that political violence comes out at the top is really reflective of the challenges that individuals face in fragile, conflict, and violence-affected settings, so it's not really surprising. It's unfortunate that that is at the top of the agenda because, if you think about it, there are so many other factors that constrain entrepreneurship and economic activity in many of these markets, such as access to finance and lack of infrastructure, as Randolphe mentioned. But the role of the World Bank Group is really to try to help unblock some of these challenges.

[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
Exactly. It was very cool to hear what you're doing to address the bottleneck of SMEs and affordable finance and entrepreneurs. Our next audience question looks at another potential source of expertise, investment, and solutions, which is the diaspora. The question is: What role can diaspora communities play in supporting private investment and job creation in fragile settings? Anastasia, do you want to take this one?

[ANASTASIA GEKIS]
I'd love to, because it's such an important question and such an important contributor to economic activity in markets, but in particular in fragile, conflict, and violence-affected settings. As I mentioned, I was recently in Afghanistan, and I met with the chamber of commerce in one of the cities. We met with a number of individuals who are actually part of the Afghan diaspora and are looking to give back to their country and contribute to economic activity. What that shows is that you have individuals around the world who are willing and eager to engage. At IFC, we've engaged a lot and had a number of sessions with diaspora communities to try to see how we can support and engage with them. I think this is a great opportunity for economic activity and for job creation in these settings: to leverage the diaspora that exists out there.

[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
Another demographic that has a lot to gain, and a lot to lose, from all this is young people. So let's take a moment to focus on them with this question: "What strategies have proven most effective for creating sustainable jobs for young people in fragile settings, particularly through partnerships with the private sector?" Randolphe, I'm going to turn to you for this one.

[RANDOLPHE GOHORE]
Sure. I think it's an important question. And I believe, as one World Bank Group, there is a critical question that we need to answer. It's really: How do we scale? How do we scale our operations to respond to this challenge, as Anastasia mentioned? I think we also need to consider how we can move from project-by-project operations with financing and guarantees to some sort of platform investment. How do we move from retail to wholesale, so to speak? At MIGA, we've been thinking about this issue, and we came up with a framework where we are trying to support private investors in addition to project-by-project guarantees, which are good. We're trying to support private investors across a broader set of projects. For example, we recently issued a guarantee for one of our clients, AMEA Power, covering more than 20 renewable energy projects. Instead of going through all of those 20 projects one by one and taking years to approve them, we're trying to build a framework where we can provide guarantees across that platform. I think this is critical for young people because, if IFC and MIGA can provide financing and risk mitigation at scale, we can then support more private investors. And in doing so, we are creating more pathways to employment for a large number of young people and in a relatively short period of time. So I think it's an innovative way we need to consider and scale in addition to what we do with our different operations. Thinking wholesale, thinking platform, will be very critical for our mandates and for this jobs agenda we are on.

[ANASTASIA GEKIS]
Just to add to that, because I think it's great to think at the high level about how we as the World Bank Group can actually work together to scale, but I wanted to give a couple of small examples of what happens on the ground, which is where the partnership angle comes in. There are a number of examples where, as the World Bank Group, we've engaged with partners in countries such as Lebanon and Afghanistan, where we're building the capacity of entrepreneurs. You're trying to give them the understanding of how to leverage and create their enterprises on the ground, and that skill then creates an ecosystem of SMEs that allows the World Bank Group to further support them, and IFC and MIGA in particular to provide the financing down the line, either directly or indirectly. So that capacity building of entrepreneurs is, to me, an essential component of what we should and can do to foster innovation in these markets.

[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
It's the ecosystem, it's the holistic approach, it's wholesale, not retail. These are very memorable. We've discussed a lot of things today. We've touched on the fundamental question of why we should care. We've discussed SMEs, entrepreneurs, young people, and diaspora. As we wrap up, I'd like to ask you both a final question: What is the one thing you want people to take away from this conversation and everything we have discussed? Anastasia, let's start with you.

[ANASTASIA GEKIS]
Let me say that we're all aware of the fact that it's really difficult to operate in fragile, conflict, and violence-affected settings. And I say that from the perspective of the World Bank Group, but I say that from the perspective of all of you who are actually trying to do that. And yet it is an opportunity because there is innovation, there is opportunity, and as the World Bank Group, we have a toolbox that we can bring to the table to help enable the creation of jobs, enable economic activity, and enable opportunities out there. That is what I am committed to. That is what so many of us across the World Bank Group are committed to do, and that is what we're looking forward to supporting going forward.

[RANDOLPHE GOHORE]
One thing I would say is that FCV countries are exactly the places where we need to create jobs. They're the places where jobs are needed the most. As Anastasia said, we have the toolkit, we have the products, we have the internal resources, and I think we need to leverage that to respond to this challenge and deliver on our mandates.

[NOREYANA FERNANDO]
Thank you, Randolphe. Thank you, Anastasia. Thank you for the work you do and for being such a big part of this toolkit that you mentioned. And thank you to everybody who took part through the poll, the chat, and the questions you submitted ahead of the event. We could not get to everything today, but Alaa Khattab and Joanna Kata-Blackman will continue answering your questions in the chat for another 30 minutes. You can find the replay and sign up for future World Bank Live events at worldbank.org/live. Thank you so much for spending time with us, and see you next time on You Ask, We Answer on World Bank Live. ​